\u010cNB sv\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm nevybo\u010dila z nastaven\u00e9 cesty a podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ponechala z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu na 7,00 %. Nic se nem\u011bn\u00ed ani na mo\u017enosti intervenovat v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed volatility. Nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed inflac\u00ed v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce, a naopak o n\u011bco lep\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvojem ekonomiky. I nad\u00e1le progn\u00f3za vol\u00e1 po kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9m zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb, bankovn\u00ed rada ale pracuje s alternativn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em a chce j\u00edt sp\u00ed\u0161e cestou stability. Na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci se guvern\u00e9r Michl op\u0159el do sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho zacen\u011bn\u00ed trhu, a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee sazby z\u016fstanou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e trh p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1.<\/b><\/p>\n
\nSamotn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady nep\u0159ekvapilo a stejn\u011b jako na p\u0159edchoz\u00edch zased\u00e1n\u00ed z\u016fstal pom\u011br hlas\u016f 5-2 ve prosp\u011bch stability sazeb. Dva ze \u010dlen\u016f \u2013 patrn\u011b kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed viceguvern\u00e9r Marek Mora a \u010dlen bankovn\u00ed rady Tom\u00e1\u0161 Holub \u2013 hlasovali pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed o 50bb.<\/p>\n
Na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci k nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00edm moment\u016fm pat\u0159ily dotazy na intervence a tr\u017en\u00ed zacen\u011bn\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdvoje sazeb. S intervencemi pl\u00e1nuje bankovn\u00ed rada pokra\u010dovat, a to bez ohledu na v ot\u00e1zce zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd negativn\u00ed dopad na export\u00e9ry a mo\u017en\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1vazku ke spekulac\u00edm ze strany zahrani\u010dn\u00edch investor\u016f. Inflace je podle guvern\u00e9ra Michla hlavn\u00edm probl\u00e9mem a silnou korunu pova\u017euje za z\u00e1kladn\u00ed kamen k jej\u00edmu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed. Druh\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka m\u00ed\u0159ila na re\u00e1lnost sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho tr\u017en\u00edho zacen\u011bn\u00ed, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ed zased\u00e1n\u00edm implikovalo o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed sazeb do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku zhruba o 150bb. Guvern\u00e9r Michl ve sv\u00e9 odpov\u011bdi uvedl, \u017ee podle n\u011bj \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby z\u016fstanou vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e trh aktu\u00e1ln\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1. Ani pot\u00e9 ale k v\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu pohybu na FRA sazb\u00e1ch nedo\u0161lo a zacen\u011bn\u00ed tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u00e1le podobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n
Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazba \u010cNB<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n| <\/td>\n | \n | Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | P\u0159edchoz\u00ed<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | RB<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | Trh<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n % p.a.<\/td>\n | \n | 7,00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | 7,00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | 7,00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n \n | 7,00<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \nZdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Bloomberg<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n | Zat\u00edmco listopadov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala, \u017ee v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce dos\u00e1hne inflace 8,9 %,\u00a0nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za<\/b>\u00a0po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s r\u016fstem cenov\u00e9 hladiny o 10,6 %. Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je naopak ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0ohledn\u011b inflace\u00a0<\/b>v roce 2024 \u2013 ta by se podle progn\u00f3zy \u010cNB m\u011bla dostat na 2,1 % (p\u0159edchoz\u00ed progn\u00f3za p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala 2,4 %). V t\u011b\u017eko odhadnuteln\u00e9m lednu podle \u010cNB rostla cenov\u00e1 hladina o 17,6 %. Podle n\u00e1s byl v\u00fdvoj um\u00edrn\u011bn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v okol\u00ed 16 %.<\/p>\n V\u00fdvoj HDP<\/b>\u00a0v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka v \u010derven\u00fdch \u010d\u00edslech, by\u0165 progn\u00f3za byla m\u00edrn\u011b revidov\u00e1na sm\u011brem k lep\u0161\u00edmu (-0,3 % vs p\u016fvodn\u00edch -0,7 %).\u00a0U kurzu koruny\u00a0<\/b>o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010cNB oslaben\u00ed k 24,7 EUR\/CZK ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, tedy stejn\u011b, jako p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 na\u0161e progn\u00f3za.<\/p>\n Dne\u0161n\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed se neslo v podobn\u00e9m duchu jako n\u011bkolik posledn\u00edch setk\u00e1n\u00ed, a i v b\u0159eznu se podle slov guvern\u00e9ra Michla bude bankovn\u00ed rada rozhodovat o stabilit\u011b nebo zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb. Navzdory jest\u0159\u00e1b\u011b zn\u011bj\u00edc\u00edm v\u00fdrok\u016fm guvern\u00e9ra Michla se nic nem\u011bn\u00ed na na\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze, kter\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 prvn\u00ed cuty v druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. Sazby podle n\u00e1s v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce poklesnou o 100bb, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba dostala na 6 % ke konci roku 2023.<\/p>\n Autor: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik RB<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u010cNB sv\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm nevybo\u010dila z nastaven\u00e9 cesty a podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ponechala z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu na 7,00 %. Nic se nem\u011bn\u00ed ani na mo\u017enosti intervenovat v […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":843,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=842"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":844,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/842\/revisions\/844"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/843"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}} |