{"id":778,"date":"2023-01-25T15:11:38","date_gmt":"2023-01-25T15:11:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=778"},"modified":"2023-01-25T15:11:38","modified_gmt":"2023-01-25T15:11:38","slug":"kb-vydala-makroekonomickou-prognozu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=778","title":{"rendered":"KB vydala makroekonomickou progn\u00f3zu"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed si ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku pro\u0161lo m\u011blkou reces\u00ed. Zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky odolnosti n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky a celkov\u00e9 robustnosti ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdkonnosti v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b v\u0161ak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee obdob\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9ho poklesu je ji\u017e za n\u00e1mi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00a0lo\u0148skem by letos m\u011bla b\u00fdt ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed i inflace, i kdy\u017e proces desinflace bude pom\u011brn\u011b pomal\u00fd. I za leto\u0161n\u00ed rok z\u0159ejm\u011b vyk\u00e1\u017eeme dvoucifern\u00fd r\u016fst cen. \u010cNB tak podle n\u00e1s bude dr\u017eet kl\u00ed\u010dovou \u00farokovou sazbu ve v\u00fd\u0161i sedm procent a\u017e do srpna, kdy za\u010dne cyklus jej\u00edho sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed. Trh pr\u00e1ce z\u016fstane t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nedot\u010den.<\/p>\n

Recese posledn\u00edch dvou lo\u0148sk\u00fdch \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed byla vskutku pouze technickou z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed. <\/strong>Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika zaznamenala ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku pouze m\u00edrn\u00e9 mezi\u010dtvrtletn\u00ed poklesy. Za cel\u00fd rok 2022 tak d\u00edky jeho \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b vyk\u00e1zala solidn\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,5 %. \u201eHovo\u0159it ale m\u016f\u017eeme o spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 recesi. Zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli lo\u0148sk\u00e9 vysok\u00e9 inflaci jsme zaznamenali nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed propad re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f za posledn\u00ed t\u0159i dek\u00e1dy. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b znamen\u00e1, \u017ee re\u00e1ln\u00e1 spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed kles\u00e1, a to nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b od z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9ho \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2021<\/em>\u201c, konstatuje Jan Vejm\u011blek, hlavn\u00ed ekonom Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky. Slab\u00e1, zejm\u00e9na ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, byla i druh\u00e1 slo\u017eka dom\u00e1c\u00ed popt\u00e1vky \u2013 investice. Nev\u00fdrazn\u00e1 investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivita odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed celkov\u011b panuj\u00edc\u00ed ekonomickou nejistotu, sv\u00fdm d\u00edlem se podepsaly i vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na financov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00a0souvislosti s\u00a0n\u00e1r\u016fstem \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n

\u010cesko podr\u017eeli kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00ed obchodn\u00ed partne\u0159i, tedy zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka.<\/strong> V\u00fdznamnou roli zde sehr\u00e1lo zlep\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed situace v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch, co\u017e se pozitivn\u011b projevilo v\u00a0produkci automobilov\u00e9ho sektoru. \u201eVn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed prost\u0159ed\u00ed n\u00e1m opravdu pomohlo. Navzdory v\u0161em obav\u00e1m N\u011bmecko v\u016fbec do recese nespadlo, a podle n\u00e1s u\u017e nespadne<\/em>\u201c, dokresluje pozitivn\u00ed obr\u00e1zek ekonomka KB Jana Steckerov\u00e1. Popt\u00e1vka ze zahrani\u010dn\u00ed bude t\u00edm, co \u010deskou ekonomiku letos nastartuje, postupn\u011b se bude p\u0159id\u00e1vat i ta dom\u00e1c\u00ed. O\u017eiven\u00ed ale bude velmi pozvoln\u00e9, za cel\u00fd rok 2023 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst tuzemsk\u00e9ho HDP o nev\u00fdrazn\u00fdch 0,3 % (oproti 0,5\u00a0% p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch v\u00a0p\u0159edchoz\u00ed progn\u00f3ze). P\u0159edpandemick\u00e9 \u00farovn\u011b re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho v\u00fdstupu dos\u00e1hneme a\u017e v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bru leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. Progn\u00f3za p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee lo\u0148sk\u00e1 recese bude m\u00edt pouze minim\u00e1ln\u00ed dopad na trh pr\u00e1ce. M\u00edrn\u00fd vzestup pod\u00edlu nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch, kter\u00fd v\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edm roce nep\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed po sez\u00f3nn\u00edm o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed 4 %, nic nezm\u011bn\u00ed na napjat\u00e9m trhu pr\u00e1ce. Bohu\u017eel vzhledem k\u00a0vysok\u00e9 inflaci i letos re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy poklesnou, po lo\u0148sk\u00e9m propadu o 7,2 % o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me jejich sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o 2,7 %.<\/p>\n

Rok 2022 byl rokem inflace, leto\u0161ek bude pouze m\u00edrn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed. <\/strong>Po lo\u0148sk\u00e9 pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 inflaci ve v\u00fd\u0161i 15,1 % ji i pro leto\u0161ek o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me st\u00e1le dvoucifernou, v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru na 12,9 %. \u201eLeto\u0161n\u00ed celoro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek v\u00fdznamn\u011b ovlivn\u00ed lednov\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo, kter\u00e9 je ale spojeno s\u00a0velkou m\u00edrou nejistoty. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b kon\u010d\u00ed \u00fasporn\u00fd energetick\u00fd tarif, na stran\u011b druh\u00e9 za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed platit vl\u00e1dn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 stropy u elekt\u0159iny a plynu. Velkou ot\u00e1zkou pak je, jak prob\u011bhne tradi\u010dn\u00ed lednov\u00e9 nastaven\u00ed cen\u00edk\u016f<\/em>\u201c, up\u0159es\u0148uje n\u011bkter\u00e9 z\u00a0nejistot Martin G\u00fcrtler, ekonom KB. Jednocifern\u00e9 inflace se do\u010dk\u00e1me a\u017e v\u00a0roce 2024, kdy by v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru m\u011bla \u010dinit 2,5 %. Pomal\u00fd trend desinflace se projev\u00ed v\u00a0politice \u010cNB, kter\u00e1 bude \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch dr\u017eet a\u017e do srpna, kdy p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me zah\u00e1jen\u00ed cyklu sni\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n

Koruna vstoupila do nov\u00e9ho roku \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b, proti euru se dostala na dosah historicky nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b.<\/strong> Za jej\u00ed aktu\u00e1ln\u011b silnou pozic\u00ed spat\u0159ujeme glob\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00fastup rizikov\u00e9 averze a o\u017eiven\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00edho obchodu v\u00a0z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku. Ochranou ruku nad tuzemskou m\u011bnou pak nad\u00e1le dr\u017e\u00ed \u010cNB. Od listopadu v\u0161ak z\u0159ejm\u011b intervenovat nemusela, a st\u00e1le tak disponuje zna\u010dn\u00fdmi devizov\u00fdmi rezervami. \u201eV\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zisky, kter\u00e9 koruna zaznamenala na za\u010d\u00e1tku leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, si podle n\u00e1s pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neudr\u017e\u00ed a bude je zejm\u00e9na v souvislosti s dal\u0161\u00edm z\u00fa\u017een\u00edm \u00farokov\u00e9ho diferenci\u00e1lu korigovat<\/em>\u201c, odhaluje kurzov\u00fd v\u00fdhled Jarom\u00edr Gec, strat\u00e9g Komer\u010dn\u00ed banky.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det se st\u00e1le nevymanil z\u00a0krizov\u00e9ho m\u00f3du. <\/strong>Ten vloni zaznamenal obdobn\u011b hlubok\u00fd schodek jako v\u00a0pandemick\u00e9m roce 2020. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee konsolidace ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed bude na pozad\u00ed utlumen\u00e9ho r\u016fstu ekonomiky a hlubok\u00e9ho struktur\u00e1ln\u00edho schodku pokra\u010dovat pouze pozvoln\u00fdm tempem. \u201eHranici 300 mld. K\u010d podle n\u00e1s m\u016f\u017ee deficit p\u0159ekro\u010dit i letos, p\u0159esto\u017ee schv\u00e1len\u00fd schodek \u010din\u00ed 295 mld. K\u010d,\u201c,<\/em> m\u00edn\u00ed Jarom\u00edr Gec. Pod\u00edlet by se na tom m\u011bla hlavn\u011b v\u00a0p\u016fvodn\u00edm n\u00e1vrhu nezahrnut\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 valorizace starobn\u00edch d\u016fchod\u016f, kter\u00e1 si vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1 20-25 mld. K\u010d. N\u00e1r\u016fst ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu v\u00a0pom\u011bru k nomin\u00e1ln\u00edmu hrub\u00e9mu dom\u00e1c\u00edmu produktu bude nad\u00e1le zpomalovat vysok\u00e1 inflace.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Hlavn\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 prom\u011bnn\u00e9<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n\u00a0<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
 <\/td>\n2021<\/td>\n2022<\/strong><\/td>\n2023<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
HDP <\/strong>(re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n3,5<\/td>\n2,5<\/strong><\/td>\n0,3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed <\/strong>(re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n4,1<\/td>\n-0,6<\/strong><\/td>\n-1,9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fixn\u00ed investice <\/strong>(re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n0,8<\/td>\n5,4<\/strong><\/td>\n1,2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zahrani\u010dn\u00ed obchod <\/strong>(mld. CZK)<\/td>\n-9,0<\/td>\n-223,6<\/strong><\/td>\n-109,7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 v\u00fdroba <\/strong>(re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n8,0<\/td>\n2,1<\/strong><\/td>\n1,7<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby <\/strong>(re\u00e1ln\u00fd r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n4,2<\/td>\n-2,8<\/strong><\/td>\n-1,3<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mzdy <\/strong>(nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst, y\/y v %)<\/td>\n4,8<\/td>\n6,7<\/strong><\/td>\n9,9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Pod\u00edl nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch <\/strong>(MPSV, pr\u016fm\u011br, v %)<\/td>\n3,7<\/td>\n3,4<\/td>\n3,9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Inflace <\/strong>(pr\u016fm\u011br, v %)<\/td>\n3,8<\/td>\n15,1<\/td>\n12,9<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3M PRIBOR <\/strong>(pr\u016fm\u011br)<\/td>\n1,1<\/td>\n6,3<\/td>\n6,8<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2W Repo <\/strong>(pr\u016fm\u011br)<\/td>\n0,9<\/td>\n5,9<\/td>\n6,6<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
CZK\/EUR <\/strong>(pr\u016fm\u011br)<\/td>\n25,6<\/td>\n24,6<\/td>\n24,2<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Zdroj: \u010cS\u00da, \u010cNB, MPSV, Macrobond, Ekonomick\u00fd a strategick\u00fd v\u00fdzkum, Komer\u010dn\u00ed banka<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed si ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku pro\u0161lo m\u011blkou reces\u00ed. Zejm\u00e9na d\u00edky odolnosti n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky a celkov\u00e9 robustnosti ekonomick\u00e9 v\u00fdkonnosti v\u00a0euroz\u00f3n\u011b v\u0161ak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me, \u017ee […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":779,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-778","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=778"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":780,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/778\/revisions\/780"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}