V listopadu tradi\u010dn\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k razantn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu prohlouben\u00ed deficitu, kdy zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e1 strana, a naopak v\u00fddajov\u00e1 z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 na tempu, a jinak tomu nebylo ani letos. Deficit se tak prohloubil na 337,1 miliardy K\u010d, co\u017e je zhruba o 50 mld. nav\u00edc (v z\u00e1poru) proti konci \u0159\u00edjna.<\/b><\/p>\n
Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee v roce 2020 dos\u00e1hl fin\u00e1ln\u00ed deficit 367 mld. K\u010d, nab\u00edz\u00ed se na prvn\u00ed pohled srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s n\u00edm. Tehdy v listopadu saldo dosahovalo 341,5 mld. K\u010d. Trajektorie tak z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 velmi podobn\u00e1, sp\u00ed\u0161e ve sm\u011bru m\u00edrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho deficitu, ne\u017e kter\u00fd je aktu\u00e1ln\u011b vl\u00e1dou naprojektovan\u00fd. Celkov\u011b jde o t\u0159et\u00ed nejhor\u0161\u00ed listopadov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek, kdy krom\u011b roku 2020 byla situace hor\u0161\u00ed u\u017e jen v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce. Tehdy na konci listopadu dosahoval deficit v\u00edce jak 400 mld. K\u010d, fin\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1porn\u00e9 saldo na konci prosince pak bylo je\u0161t\u011b zhruba o 20 mld. vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n
P\u0159ed z\u00e1v\u011bre\u010dn\u00fdm m\u011bs\u00edcem leto\u0161n\u00edho roku do\u0161lo v meziro\u010dn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0k r\u016fstu na obou stran\u00e1ch rozpo\u010dtu<\/b>. Zat\u00edmco p\u0159\u00edjmy SR vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 7,2 % (+95,5 mld. K\u010d), v\u00fddaje rostly o 1,8 % (29,0 mld. K\u010d).<\/p>\n
Obr\u00e1zek na\u00a0p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9 stran\u011b<\/b>\u00a0je podobn\u00fd jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch. Vy\u010dn\u00edv\u00e1 tak p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm r\u016fst inkasa dan\u011b z p\u0159idan\u00e9 hodnoty (+16,1 %, +43,6 mld. K\u010d), kde je ale zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 pozorovat postupn\u00e9 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00edho p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstku.<\/p>\n
V \u0159\u00edjnu \u010dinil meziro\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1r\u016fst 18,5 %, v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 18,3 %, v srpnu pak 18,6 %. V\u00fdvoj odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed kombinaci popt\u00e1vky dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a inflace, kdy z listopadov\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed lze odhadovat, \u017ee ji\u017e doch\u00e1z\u00ed k ur\u010dit\u00e9mu ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed na jedn\u00e9, nebo sp\u00ed\u0161e obou stran\u00e1ch t\u00e9to rovnice.<\/p>\n
Na stran\u011b v\u00fddaj\u016f<\/b>\u00a0sv\u00edt\u00ed tak\u00e9 ji\u017e klasick\u00e9 polo\u017eky, kde v\u00fdznamnou roli hraj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdplaty d\u016fchod\u016f, kter\u00e9 meziro\u010dn\u011b rostly o 8,1 %, co\u017e odpov\u00edd\u00e1 28,6 mld. K\u010d. Dal\u0161\u00edch 11,6 mld. nav\u00edc (+13,7 %) proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu rozpo\u010dtu p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed v\u00fddaje st\u00e1t\u016f na platby ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed za tzv. st\u00e1tn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bnce. To je d\u00e1no zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm plateb, i v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem t\u011bchto poji\u0161t\u011bnc\u016f, mj. v d\u016fsledku p\u0159\u00edchodu uprchl\u00edk\u016f z Ukrajiny. Naopak stejn\u011b jako po cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok ve prosp\u011bch ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f hraj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm transfery podnikatel\u016fm, kter\u00e9 jsou d\u00edky lo\u0148sk\u00e9 covidov\u00e9 pomoci ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed o 56,2 % (-57,9 mld. K\u010d).<\/p>\n
Celkov\u00fd listopadov\u00fd obr\u00e1zek nep\u0159inesl v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed a\u00a0rozpo\u010det pom\u011brn\u011b p\u0159esn\u011b sm\u011b\u0159uje k 375mld. deficitu<\/b>. Zpomalen\u00ed r\u016fstu u inkasa DPH je dobrou zpr\u00e1vou pro \u010cNB, kde jak zpomalen\u00ed popt\u00e1vky, tak sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed inflace p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed sm\u011br, kter\u00fd teoreticky m\u016f\u017ee usp\u00ed\u0161it diskuzi o sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb.<\/p>\n
Vzhledem k d\u00e1le vysok\u00e9 inflaci, kter\u00e1 bude dvoucifern\u00e1 i v prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku ale neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me, \u017ee by sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161lo d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e v Q3\u201923. Co se t\u00fdk\u00e1 samotn\u00e9ho rozpo\u010dtu, pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok byl poslanci schv\u00e1len pl\u00e1n vl\u00e1dy pro hospoda\u0159en\u00ed se schodkem ve v\u00fd\u0161i 295 mld. K\u010d, tedy o 80 mld. ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce. K podpisu ho dostane Milo\u0161 Zeman, kter\u00fd na za\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu nepodepsal n\u00e1vrh pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok, jeho veto ale bylo ale v pr\u016fb\u011bhu m\u011bs\u00edce p\u0159ehlasov\u00e1no poslanci.<\/p>\n
Autor: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik Raiffeisenbank<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
V listopadu tradi\u010dn\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k razantn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu prohlouben\u00ed deficitu, kdy zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e1 strana, a naopak v\u00fddajov\u00e1 z\u00edsk\u00e1v\u00e1 na tempu, a jinak tomu nebylo ani letos. Deficit […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":199,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=314"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":316,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/314\/revisions\/316"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/199"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}