{"id":306,"date":"2022-12-02T08:49:22","date_gmt":"2022-12-02T08:49:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=306"},"modified":"2022-12-02T10:27:22","modified_gmt":"2022-12-02T10:27:22","slug":"index-exportu-zlepseni-v-logistice-otevira-exportu-cestu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=306","title":{"rendered":"Index Exportu \u2013 Zlep\u0161en\u00ed v logistice otev\u00edr\u00e1 cestu"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hodnota v\u00fdvoz\u016f b\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pokra\u010dovala v\u00a0meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edm 20 % a aktualizovan\u00e1 predikce Indexu exportu se posunula optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sm\u011brem, i kdy\u017e nad\u00e1le predikuje sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00edho tempa pozvolna a\u017e do bl\u00edzkosti 10 % v\u00a0prvn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eVysok\u00e1 meziro\u010dn\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla ale do jist\u00e9 m\u00edry vysv\u011btluje srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed efekt \u2013 nap\u0159\u00edklad o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pokles hodnoty v\u00fdvoz\u016f okolo 0,5 % b\u011bhem \u0159\u00edjna by vysta\u010dil na to, aby se meziro\u010dn\u00ed tempo udr\u017eelo nad 20 %,\u201c <\/em>upozor\u0148uje Helena Horsk\u00e1, hlavn\u00ed ekonomka Raiffeisenbank.<\/p>\n

“Predikce Indexu exportu ukazuje na p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v dob\u011b, kdy do\u0161lo k m\u00edrn\u00e9mu optimismu i ve v\u00fdsledc\u00edch \u0159ady sledovan\u00fdch v\u00fdhledov\u00fdch indik\u00e1tor\u016f, jako nap\u0159\u00edklad n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho Ifo indexu \u010di pr\u016fzkumu mezi n\u00e1kupn\u00edmi mana\u017eery PMI. Obavy z recese na trhu sice p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00ed, ale alespo\u0148 se ji\u017e neprohlubuj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b jej\u00ed hloubky,\u201c <\/em>komentuje ekonomka Horsk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

Ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdhledu exportu doch\u00e1z\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na pozad\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v\u00a0glob\u00e1ln\u00edch dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch, co\u017e uvol\u0148uje cestu v\u00fdm\u011bnn\u00e9mu obchodu. \u201eTo ale nutn\u011b neznamen\u00e1, \u017ee r\u016fst exportu bude zrcadlen i ve v\u00fdrobn\u00edm sektoru. Pohled na konjunktur\u00e1ln\u00ed pr\u016fzkum publikovan\u00fd \u010cS\u00da odhaluje, \u017ee zat\u00edmco o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b exportu na horizontu p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch t\u0159\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f vzrostla, o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd objem produkce a hodnocen\u00ed ekonomick\u00e9 situace, popt\u00e1vky a zam\u011bstnanosti se vydaly opa\u010dn\u00fdm sm\u011brem. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se tak argument, \u017ee d\u00edky zlep\u0161en\u00ed podm\u00ednek v\u00a0dodavatelsk\u00fdch \u0159et\u011bzc\u00edch bude v\u00fdvoz \u010derpat impulz z\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve naakumulovan\u00fdch objedn\u00e1vek ne\u017eli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed aktivity v\u00a0pr\u016fmyslu,\u201c<\/em> vysv\u011btluje ekonomka Horsk\u00e1.<\/p>\n

\u201eJe t\u0159eba m\u00edt ale na mysli i dal\u0161\u00ed faktory, kter\u00e9 zat\u00edm Index Exportu neum\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b zohlednit. T\u00edm prvn\u00edm je v\u00a0tuto dobu cenov\u00e1 inflace, kter\u00e1 se pozitivn\u011b propisuje do o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9ho r\u016fstu objemu v\u00fdvozu vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00e9ho v\u00a0deviz\u00e1ch, i kdy\u017e hmoty bude m\u00e9n\u011b. Proti n\u011bmu p\u016fsob\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed pos\u00edlen\u00ed koruny v\u016f\u010di euru o 5,2 %, kter\u00e9 je m\u00edrn\u011b kompenzov\u00e1no oslaben\u00edm koruny v\u016f\u010di dolaru o 2,3 %. Ale proto\u017ee vl\u00e1da zat\u00edm nep\u0159edstavila program, jak pom\u016f\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm podnik\u016fm, m\u016f\u017ee v\u00a01. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku doch\u00e1zet k\u00a0redukov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u00fdroby, \u010di dokonce k\u00a0jej\u00edmu zastaven\u00ed u podnik\u016f s\u00a0vysokou energetickou n\u00e1ro\u010dnost\u00ed z\u00a0d\u016fvod\u016f vysok\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed, i kdy\u017e budou zastropovan\u00e9. Hroz\u00ed toti\u017e postupn\u00e1 ztr\u00e1ta konkurenceschopnosti \u010desk\u00fdch export\u00e9r\u016f, proto\u017ee v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st export\u00e9r\u016f nem\u00e1 na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok p\u0159edkoupeny energie za p\u0159edv\u00e1le\u010dnou cenu. A nav\u00edc ur\u010dit\u011b poroste tlak na mzdy bez kompenzace r\u016fstem produktivity pr\u00e1ce a sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem se negativn\u011b projev\u00ed i r\u016fst n\u00e1kladov\u00fdch \u00farok\u016f. Nav\u00edc prvn\u00ed sign\u00e1ly z\u00a0domova i ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed nazna\u010duj\u00ed chladnouc\u00ed popt\u00e1vku. Tak\u017ee vlastn\u00ed predikce Indexu Exportu bude ovliv\u0148ov\u00e1na tolika vlivy, \u017ee lze opravdu jen velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b predikovat i na takto kr\u00e1tkou dobu, jak to opravdu bude,\u201c<\/em> dod\u00e1v\u00e1 Otto Dan\u011bk, m\u00edstop\u0159edseda Asociace export\u00e9r\u016f.<\/p>\n

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Hodnota v\u00fdvoz\u016f b\u011bhem z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed pokra\u010dovala v\u00a0meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edm 20 % a aktualizovan\u00e1 predikce Indexu exportu se posunula optimisti\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sm\u011brem, i kdy\u017e nad\u00e1le predikuje sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00edho […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":308,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-306","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banky","category-export"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=306"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":310,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/306\/revisions\/310"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/308"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=306"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=306"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=306"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}