{"id":1815,"date":"2023-08-11T08:31:27","date_gmt":"2023-08-11T08:31:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1815"},"modified":"2023-08-11T08:34:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-11T08:34:02","slug":"cba-tuzemska-ekonomika-na-hrane-recese","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1815","title":{"rendered":"\u010cBA: Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika na hran\u011b recese"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-12 col-lg-6\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mt-5 custom-content-wrapper justify-align\">\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div><strong>Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika na hran\u011b recese, letos bude stagnovat a v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce vzroste jen m\u00edrn\u011b. Inflace se v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, uvedli hlavn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 bank v prognostick\u00e9m panelu \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace.<\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div>\n<div class=\"row\">\n<div class=\"col-12 col-lg-6 mt-3 mb-4 mb-lg-0\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"w-100\" src=\"https:\/\/www.cbamonitor.cz\/storage\/breaking-news-thumbs\/bn_67_thumbnail_1.png\" alt=\"MAKROEKONOMICK\u00c1 PROGN\u00d3ZA \u010cBA 3Q 23 ilustra\u010dn\u00ed foto\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"mt-5 custom-content-wrapper justify-align\">\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Ekonomov\u00e9 p\u0159ehodnotili v\u00fdvoj ekonomiky k m\u00edrn\u011b slab\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m a pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok tak konsensus p\u0159epokl\u00e1d\u00e1 jej\u00ed stagnaci. <\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by m\u011bl r\u016fst dos\u00e1hnout 2,3 %, oproti p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze je ale tak\u00e9 ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed, a to zejm\u00e9na s ohledem na pomalej\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v zahrani\u010d\u00ed. Inflaci pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok st\u00e1le \u010dek\u00e1me ve v\u00fd\u0161i 11 % a v jeho z\u00e1v\u011bru kolem 8 %. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce ale dos\u00e1hne v pr\u016fm\u011bru 2,5 % a na konci roku pak 2 %. V obou p\u0159\u00edpadech se odhad inflace oproti kv\u011btnov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze m\u00edrn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eil s ohledem na dosavadn\u00ed rychlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fatlum infla\u010dn\u00edch tlak\u016f. <\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Na trh pr\u00e1ce ekonomick\u00e9 zpomalov\u00e1n\u00ed dopad\u00e1 omezen\u011b a m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti setrv\u00e1v\u00e1 na n\u00edzk\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch. Odhad r\u016fstu mezd pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok je p\u0159esto m\u00edrn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed. Od konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku v\u0161ak za\u010dnou op\u011bt r\u016fst i re\u00e1ln\u00e9 mzdy. <\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><strong><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u00darokov\u00e9 sazby \u010cNB za\u010dnou klesat ji\u017e letos, n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 panelu nicm\u00e9n\u011b po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s prvn\u00edm poklesem sazeb a\u017e v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce. Koncem p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku by se hlavn\u00ed sazba centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky m\u011bla nach\u00e1zet m\u00edrn\u011b nad 4 %. Kurz koruny pro leto\u0161n\u00ed i p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 kolem \u00farovn\u011b 24 K\u010d za euro, a\u010dkoli jednotliv\u00e9 odhady se v tomto ohledu rozch\u00e1zej\u00ed.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><iframe loading=\"lazy\"  id=\"_ytid_75466\"  width=\"800\" height=\"450\"  data-origwidth=\"800\" data-origheight=\"450\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/1VmKfamaA7o?enablejsapi=1&rel=1&modestbranding=0&autoplay=0&cc_load_policy=0&cc_lang_pref=&iv_load_policy=1&loop=0&fs=1&playsinline=0&autohide=2&theme=dark&color=red&controls=1&\" class=\"__youtube_prefs__  no-lazyload\" title=\"YouTube player\"  allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen data-no-lazy=\"1\" data-skipgform_ajax_framebjll=\"\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><b style=\"font-size: medium;\">Nejistota glob\u00e1ln\u00edho v\u00fdvoje p\u0159etrv\u00e1v\u00e1<\/b><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">V\u00fdvoj glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiky z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00fd. Na jednu stranu se sni\u017euje \u0161ance, \u017ee ekonomika Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f americk\u00fdch vstoup\u00ed do dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 recese, na druhou stranu ekonomick\u00e9 o\u017eivov\u00e1n\u00ed v \u010c\u00edn\u011b z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nad\u00e1le pomal\u00e9 a tak\u00e9 v\u00fdhled pro zem\u011b euroz\u00f3ny se zhor\u0161il. Inflace v hlavn\u00edch ekonomik\u00e1ch dos\u00e1hla vrcholu. Stejn\u011b tak se pobl\u00ed\u017e sv\u00fdch vrchol\u016f nach\u00e1z\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby hlavn\u00edch centr\u00e1ln\u00edch bank, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd ale bude dal\u0161\u00ed pokles zejm\u00e9na j\u00e1drov\u00e9 inflace. V tomto ohledu pom\u00e1h\u00e1 skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ceny \u0159ady komodit v\u010detn\u011b energi\u00ed se ji\u017e ust\u00e1lily na ni\u017e\u0161\u00edch \u00farovn\u00edch a obavy z nedostatku energi\u00ed se tak v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Navzdory n\u011bkter\u00fdm pozitivn\u00edm zpr\u00e1v\u00e1m, jako je i odezn\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v dodavatelsk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch, se p\u0159edstihov\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory zejm\u00e9na v pr\u016fmyslu zhor\u0161uj\u00ed a nazna\u010duj\u00ed slab\u0161\u00ed ekonomickou aktivitu pro euroz\u00f3nu<\/b>, hlavn\u011b pak pro N\u011bmecko, co\u017e komplikuje vyhl\u00eddky i pro tuzemskou ekonomiku a jej\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 o\u017eivov\u00e1n\u00ed od druh\u00e9 poloviny leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><b style=\"font-size: medium;\">Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika se st\u00e1le pohybuje na hran\u011b recese<\/b><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za \u010cBA pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 jen velmi m\u00edrn\u00fd r\u016fst tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky o 0,1 %. Oproti kv\u011btnov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze se odhad nepatrn\u011b zhor\u0161il a vr\u00e1til se tak zp\u011bt na odhad z kraje leto\u0161n\u00edho roku.\u00a0<\/b>A\u010dkoli se ekonomika dostala z m\u00edrn\u00e9 recese rychleji, jej\u00ed zotavov\u00e1n\u00ed v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku je velmi pomal\u00e9 a p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fd odhad HDP za druh\u00e9 \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed potvrdil, \u017ee vesm\u011bs stagnuje. <\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">K meziro\u010dn\u00edmu r\u016fstu se dle sou\u010dasn\u00e9 progn\u00f3zy vr\u00e1t\u00ed ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku a v posledn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed by ji\u017e m\u011bla r\u016fst v\u00edce ne\u017e o 1 %. Za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok ale bude vesm\u011bs stagnovat. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce pak r\u016fst ekonomiky zrychl\u00ed a m\u011bl by se pohybovat m\u00edrn\u011b nad 2% hranic\u00ed. Oproti kv\u011btnu se odhad r\u016fstu zmen\u0161il, co\u017e souvis\u00ed nejen se slab\u0161\u00ed spot\u0159ebou dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivitou, ale tak\u00e9 slabou \u00farovn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky a pomalej\u0161\u00edm r\u016fstem na\u0161ich hlavn\u00edch obchodn\u00edch partner\u016f. Dle dosavadn\u00edho v\u00fdvoje se sice tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika uk\u00e1zala b\u00fdt relativn\u011b odolnou v\u016f\u010di negativn\u00edm vliv\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s energetickou kriz\u00ed, k nastartov\u00e1n\u00ed rychlej\u0161\u00edho zotavov\u00e1n\u00ed ale doch\u00e1z\u00ed jen velmi pomalu. <\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\"><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">V tomto ohledu \u010cR zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za v\u011bt\u0161inou evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. Alternativn\u00ed ukazatel v\u00fdkonu tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00fdm je hrub\u00e1 p\u0159idan\u00e1 hodnota, v\u0161ak ukazuje, \u017ee se tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika recesi vyhnula a m\u00edrn\u011b roste. I to je jedno z vysv\u011btlen\u00ed skute\u010dnosti, \u017ee se na tuzemsk\u00e9m trhu pr\u00e1ce recese m\u011b\u0159en\u00e1 HDP t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neprojevila.<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-6\">\n<div class=\"w-100\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<blockquote>\n<div>\n<div class=\"quote-img\">\n<div class=\"w-100\"><b style=\"font-size: medium;\">Jakub Seidler, hlavn\u00ed ekonom \u010cesk\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed asociace:<\/b><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"quote-text\">\n<p><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">\u201eZe zahrani\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed sm\u00ed\u0161en\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, m\u00e9n\u011b pozitivn\u011b v tomto ohledu vyzn\u00edv\u00e1 slab\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed popt\u00e1vka a zejm\u00e9na slab\u00fd v\u00fdkon n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky. I z toho d\u016fvodu se pro druhou polovinu roku \u010dek\u00e1 jen velmi opatrn\u00e9 o\u017eivov\u00e1n\u00ed tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e1 za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok bude jen stagnovat.\u201c<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div class=\"col-12 mb-3 mb-lg-0 col-lg-12\">\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Progn\u00f3za nad\u00e1le p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 citeln\u00fd pokles spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, ta by m\u011bla letos klesnout t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 o 3 %.\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Oproti minul\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze tak spot\u0159eba bude klesat v\u00fdrazn\u011bji, co\u017e je d\u00e1no doposud slab\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdvojem maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb, kter\u00e9 v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku poklesly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 7 %. A\u010dkoli ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku se re\u00e1ln\u00fd propad tr\u017eeb zm\u00edrn\u00ed i vlivem ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladny, spot\u0159eba dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed z\u016fstane nad\u00e1le utlumen\u00e1 kv\u016fli propadu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by se m\u011bla vr\u00e1tit k r\u016fstu kolem 3 %, co\u017e bylo b\u011b\u017en\u00e9 v dob\u00e1ch p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed spot\u0159eba by m\u011bla letos r\u016fst kolem 2 %, m\u00e9n\u011b k r\u016fstu v\u0161ak p\u0159isp\u011bj\u00ed investice, kter\u00e9 nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za p\u0159ehodnotila oproti t\u00e9 kv\u011btnov\u00e9 sm\u011brem dol\u016f. Kombinace vysok\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a zejm\u00e9na ekonomick\u00e9 nejistoty vedla k citeln\u00e9mu sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivity firem i dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed a investice tak budou letos vesm\u011bs stagnovat. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by m\u011bla investi\u010dn\u00ed aktivita op\u011bt r\u016fst kolem 2,5 %. Vzhledem k slab\u0161\u00edmu v\u00fdvoji v zahrani\u010d\u00ed se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s kv\u011btnem slab\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst exportu, kter\u00fd byl v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b roku obecn\u011b siln\u00fd zejm\u00e9na v d\u016fsledku dokon\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed nedod\u011blk\u016f v automobilov\u00e9m sektoru po zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed v dodavatelsk\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch. Tento v\u00fdvoj v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebude udr\u017eiteln\u00fd i v druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b roku, co\u017e nazna\u010duj\u00ed sl\u00e1bnouc\u00ed nov\u00e9 zak\u00e1zky a p\u0159edstihov\u00e9 indik\u00e1tory z pr\u016fmyslu.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Trh pr\u00e1ce se vyv\u00edj\u00ed nad o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a pod\u00edl nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob se letos zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed jen nepatrn\u011b<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Tuzemsk\u00fd trh pr\u00e1ce z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nad\u00e1le napjat\u00fd a m\u00edra nezam\u011bstnanosti v tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomice je nejni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v zem\u00edch EU. Celkov\u00fd pod\u00edl nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob v roce 2022 dos\u00e1hl v pr\u016fm\u011bru 3,4 %, co\u017e je hodnota jen nepatrn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v roce 2018, kdy u\u017e trh pr\u00e1ce vykazoval v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 zn\u00e1mky p\u0159eh\u0159\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed. Posledn\u00ed v\u00fdvoj pod\u00edlu nezam\u011bstnan\u00fdch osob byl v souladu s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm, a tak odhad setrv\u00e1v\u00e1 na hodnot\u011b 3,7 %. Pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok se pak nepatrn\u011b zlep\u0161uje na 3,6 %.\u00a0<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>R\u016fst pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzdy letos dos\u00e1hne necel\u00fdch 9 %.\u00a0<\/b>Oproti p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze se hodnota nepatrn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eila vzhledem k slab\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu mezd za 1. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed. Vzhledem k dvoucifern\u00e9 inflaci ale za cel\u00fd leto\u0161n\u00ed rok pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 mzdy klesnou o 2 %, koncem roku by m\u011bly za\u010d\u00edt m\u00edrn\u011b r\u016fst a v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na hodnoty kolem 4 %. Nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst mezd v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce se stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159ede\u0161l\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 ve v\u00fd\u0161i 6,5 % s t\u00edm, \u017ee bilance rizik progn\u00f3zy jsou ve sm\u011bru rychlej\u0161\u00edho r\u016fstu mezd. To odpov\u00edd\u00e1 i vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu odhadu r\u016fstu mezd v posledn\u00ed progn\u00f3ze \u010cNB ve v\u00fd\u0161i 7,8 %.<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div class=\"row my-5\">\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Kurz koruny byl za\u010d\u00e1tkem srpna ovlivn\u011bn ne\u010dekan\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm \u010cNB ukon\u010dit interven\u010dn\u00ed re\u017eim, kter\u00fd byl v platnosti od kv\u011btna minul\u00e9ho roku.\u00a0<\/b><\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\">Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka v\u0161ak od \u0159\u00edjna 2022 na trhu ve prosp\u011bch koruny neintervenovala. I tak byla ale platnost interven\u010dn\u00edho re\u017eimu pro trh uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka nenech\u00e1 korunu skokov\u011b oslabit, co\u017e bylo pro korunu pozitivn\u00ed.\u00a0 Po ukon\u010den\u00ed interven\u010dn\u00edho re\u017eimu se koruna posunula m\u00edrn\u011b ke slab\u0161\u00edm hodnot\u00e1m kolem 24,2 K\u010d za euro. Navzdory tomu konsensus progn\u00f3z o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 kurz koruny koncem roku nad\u00e1le kolem 24 K\u010d za euro, v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce pak nepatrn\u011b na slab\u0161\u00ed \u00farovni. Stabilita progn\u00f3zy kurzu i p\u0159es kurzov\u00fd dopad ukon\u010den\u00ed interven\u010dn\u00edho re\u017eimu prozat\u00edm souvis\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee trhu nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mo, v jak\u00fdch objemech za\u010dne centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka rozprod\u00e1vat \u010d\u00e1st v\u00fdnos\u016f ze sv\u00fdch devizov\u00fdch rezerv, co\u017e bude p\u016fsobit ve prosp\u011bch kurzu koruny. Rozptyl odhad\u016f kurzu z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 stejn\u011b jako v d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch zna\u010dn\u00fd, a to zejm\u00e9na pro rok p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed, kdy se pohybuje pro konec roku od 23 po 24,5 K\u010d za euro.<\/span><\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<div><b style=\"font-size: medium;\">Navzdory vysok\u00fdm deficit\u016fm roste zadlu\u017een\u00ed v\u016f\u010di HDP jen m\u00edrn\u011b, a to d\u00edky vysok\u00e9 inflaci<\/b><\/div>\n<div><span style=\"font-size: medium;\"><b>Deficit hospoda\u0159en\u00ed st\u00e1tu pro leto\u0161n\u00ed rok odhaduje progn\u00f3za \u010cBA na 4 % HDP stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159edchoz\u00ed kv\u011btnov\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze.<\/b>\u00a0Pro p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok pak ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2,8 %. Pokles v\u00edce ne\u017e o jeden procentn\u00ed bod je d\u00e1n kombinac\u00ed odezn\u011bn\u00ed jednor\u00e1zov\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f spojen\u00fdch s kompenzacemi vysok\u00fdch cen energi\u00ed, cyklick\u00e9ho o\u017eiven\u00ed tuzemsk\u00e9 ekonomiky a nov\u00e9ho konsolida\u010dn\u00edho bal\u00ed\u010dku. A\u010dkoli se tak deficity budou v obou letech pohybovat ve stovk\u00e1ch mld. K\u010d, zadlu\u017een\u00ed st\u00e1tu v\u016f\u010di HDP se zvy\u0161uje relativn\u011b m\u00edrn\u011b, za \u010d\u00edm\u017e stoj\u00ed i vysok\u00e1 inflace zvy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst HDP. Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika ale \u010del\u00ed citeln\u00e9 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed nerovnov\u00e1ze a jej\u00ed zm\u00edrn\u011bn\u00ed vy\u017eaduje zm\u011bny jak na p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00e9, tak v\u00fddajov\u00e9 str\u00e1nce rozpo\u010dtu.<br \/>\n<\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika na hran\u011b recese, letos bude stagnovat a v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce vzroste jen m\u00edrn\u011b. Inflace se v\u00fdrazn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, uvedli hlavn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 bank v prognostick\u00e9m <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1815\" title=\"\u010cBA: Tuzemsk\u00e1 ekonomika na hran\u011b recese\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":621,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,26],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1815","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-tiskove-konference"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1815","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1815"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1815\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1821,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1815\/revisions\/1821"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/621"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1815"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1815"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1815"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}