{"id":1729,"date":"2023-07-24T12:29:29","date_gmt":"2023-07-24T12:29:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1729"},"modified":"2023-07-24T12:29:29","modified_gmt":"2023-07-24T12:29:29","slug":"koruna-v-lete-testuje-slabsi-urovne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1729","title":{"rendered":"Koruna v l\u00e9t\u011b testuje slab\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Koruna nenechala bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed ustupuj\u00edc\u00ed tuzemsk\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed sazby a v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu v\u00fdrazn\u011bji oslabila. Depreciace pokra\u010duje i b\u011bhem dne\u0161ka, kdy koruna prolomila rezistenci na \u00farovni 24,10 EUR\/CZK a v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se pohybuje t\u011bsn\u011b nad ni.<\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>P\u0159i pohledu na v\u00fdvoj v regionu je v\u00fdvoj \u010desk\u00e9 koruny podobn\u00fd s ma\u010farsk\u00fdm forintem, naopak polsk\u00fd zlot\u00fd v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu z\u016fstal stabiln\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><b>Za oslaben\u00edm \u010desk\u00e9 koruny stoj\u00ed zejm\u00e9na reakce trhu na v\u00fdvoj tr\u017en\u00edch sazeb.\u00a0<\/b>Nap\u0159\u00edklad FRA sazby v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 chv\u00edli nazna\u010duj\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu, \u017ee do konce roku 2024 sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u010cNB z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu o t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 3 procentn\u00ed body (posun o 50bb za posledn\u00edch 14 dn\u00ed), do konce leto\u0161n\u00edho roku o zhruba 60bb. V\u00fdnos dvoulet\u00e9ho \u00farokov\u00e9 swapu poklesl za posledn\u00edch 14 dn\u00ed o 40bb a nap\u0159\u00edklad i mezibankovn\u00ed sazba PRIBOR na obdob\u00ed jednoho roku vyk\u00e1zala za posledn\u00edch 14 dn\u00ed pokles o v\u00edce ne\u017e 10bb. Trh je tak p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee \u010cNB za\u010dne sazby sni\u017eovat je\u0161t\u011b letos a z\u00e1rove\u0148 ve sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed bude pokra\u010dovat relativn\u011b svi\u017en\u00fdm tempem.<\/p>\n<p><b>Tento t\u00fdden p\u0159inese z pohledu koruny kombinaci dom\u00e1c\u00edch a glob\u00e1ln\u00edch vliv\u016f.<\/b>\u00a0Vzhledem ke \u010dtvrte\u010dn\u00edmu za\u010d\u00e1tku medi\u00e1ln\u00ed karant\u00e9ny lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee na trh doraz\u00ed v prvn\u00ed polovin\u011b tohoto t\u00fddne je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed koment\u00e1\u0159e \u010dlen\u016f bankovn\u00ed rady \u010cNB p\u0159ed jedn\u00e1n\u00edm 3.srpna. Ze zahrani\u010d\u00ed pak m\u016f\u017ee korunu ovlivnit\u00a0<b>zased\u00e1n\u00ed Fedu a ECB<\/b>, kde zejm\u00e9na v\u00edce jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed postoj bank\u00e9\u0159\u016f v euroz\u00f3n\u011b by mohl vytvo\u0159it dal\u0161\u00ed tlak na kurz koruny v\u016f\u010di euru.<\/p>\n<p>Sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj je v souladu s na\u0161\u00ed dlouhodobou progn\u00f3zou, ve kter\u00e9 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me oslaben\u00ed do konce roku k hranici siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rezistence na \u00farovni 24,50 EUR\/CZK. Tuto \u00farove\u0148 m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159itom koruna testovat ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve, mj. za p\u0159edpokladu \u017ee by p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden na m\u011bnov\u011bpolitick\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rada \u010cNB p\u0159ekvapila sv\u00fdm hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b by otev\u0159ela prostor pro mo\u017enost sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed ji\u017e na z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed. Dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1sadn\u00ed rezistenci pak p\u0159edstavuje \u00farove\u0148 pobl\u00ed\u017e 24,75 EUR\/CZK, kde v minul\u00e9m roce \u010cNB aktivn\u011b intervenovala ve prosp\u011bch koruny.<\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee samotn\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed koruny funguje implicitn\u011b jako uvol\u0148ov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00e9 politiky, p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1me \u017ee bankovn\u00ed rada bude sp\u00ed\u0161e m\u00edrnit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu a nep\u0159ipust\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb p\u0159ed Q4\u201923. Trh ov\u0161em b\u011bhem posledn\u00edch zased\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nereagoval na jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed v\u00fdroky a prostor pro dlouhodob\u011bj\u0161\u00ed pos\u00edlen\u00ed koruny zp\u011bt pod \u00farove\u0148 24,0 EUR\/CZK tak ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m horizontu nevid\u00edme.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Koruna nenechala bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed ustupuj\u00edc\u00ed tuzemsk\u00e9 tr\u017en\u00ed sazby a v minul\u00e9m t\u00fddnu v\u00fdrazn\u011bji oslabila. Depreciace pokra\u010duje i b\u011bhem dne\u0161ka, kdy koruna prolomila rezistenci na \u00farovni <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1729\" title=\"Koruna v l\u00e9t\u011b testuje slab\u0161\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1729","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1729"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1730,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1729\/revisions\/1730"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/54"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}