{"id":1575,"date":"2023-06-12T13:33:43","date_gmt":"2023-06-12T13:33:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1575"},"modified":"2023-06-12T13:34:53","modified_gmt":"2023-06-12T13:34:53","slug":"pikora-inflace-prudce-brzdi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1575","title":{"rendered":"Pikora: Inflace prudce brzd\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil kv\u011btnov\u00fd index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen. Zat\u00edmco v dubnu rostly ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b o 12,7 %, v kv\u011btnu rostou u\u017e jen o 11,1 %.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Pravd\u011bpodobnost, \u017ee do dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ibrzd\u00ed inflace pod 10 %, se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 100 %. Ti, co tvrdili, \u017ee bez razantn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb inflace v\u00edce neklesne, se m\u00fdlili. Je dob\u0159e, \u017ee se nenechala \u010cNB vyprovokovat.<\/p>\n<p>Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 bude nyn\u00ed sledovat, kdo si p\u0159ip\u00ed\u0161e vav\u0159\u00edny. Politici v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee za inflaci m\u016f\u017ee \u010cNB, ale za zpomalen\u00ed cen vl\u00e1da. To je nesmysl. Bu\u010f plat\u00ed jedno, nebo to druh\u00e9. Politici neznal\u00ed ekonomie, co\u017e jsou skoro v\u0161ichni, to ale nech\u00e1pou.<\/p>\n<p>V pozad\u00ed zpomalen\u00ed inflace nestoj\u00ed to, \u017ee by n\u011bco zlev\u0148ovalo. To se a\u017e na v\u00fdjimky ned\u011blo. D\u016fvodem byl pomalej\u0161\u00ed meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst kv\u016fli tomu, \u017ee vloni byla u\u017e vysok\u00e1 srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladna. T\u0159eba chleba zdra\u017eoval v dubnu o 21,1 % a v kv\u011btnu u\u017e \u201ejen\u201c o 15,8 %.<\/p>\n<p>O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee ceny budou v dal\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch brzdit, jen ten pokles nebude u\u017e tak razantn\u00ed. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee k 7 % p\u016fjde br\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed celkem snadno. Pak u\u017e to bude drhnout a u 5 % to bude drhnout opravdu siln\u011b. Inflace se n\u00e1m postupn\u011b dostala v\u0161em do hlav a je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed na\u0161ich o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. T\u011bch se mus\u00edme zbavit.<\/p>\n<p>Jedin\u00e9, co by mohlo zpomalen\u00ed inflace v\u00edce urychlit, je politiky avizovan\u00e9 sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mezd ve st\u00e1tn\u00ed sf\u00e9\u0159e. Mus\u00edm se ale p\u0159iznat, \u017ee na sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed mezd nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm. Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee je to hloupost. J\u00e1 bych prosazoval st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed mzdy s ni\u017e\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtem zam\u011bstnanc\u016f.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Brzk\u00e9 zaveden\u00ed eura nen\u00ed l\u00e9k <\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Po p\u0159epo\u010dten\u00ed cen podle harmonizovan\u00e9ho indexu spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen, kter\u00fd pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 Eurostat, rostly na\u0161e ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b o 12,5 %. To je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 stejn\u011b jako na Slovensku, kde rostly ceny o 12,3 %. Tvrzen\u00ed mnoh\u00fdch koment\u00e1tor\u016f, \u017ee na Slovensku rostou ceny pomaleji kv\u016fli euru, se ve st\u00ednu t\u00e9to statistiky ukazuj\u00ed jako le\u017e. V\u00fdvoj cen byl m\u011bnami ovlivn\u011bn jen okrajov\u011b. Mnoz\u00ed toho ale bohu\u017eel vyu\u017e\u00edvali jako propagandu v boji za brzk\u00e9 zaveden\u00ed eura, kter\u00e9 ale nep\u0159edstavuje z\u00e1zra\u010dn\u00fd v\u0161el\u00e9k.<\/p>\n<p>Z pohledu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky dne\u0161n\u00ed statistika ukazuje, \u017ee jde o v\u00fdvoj spr\u00e1vn\u00fdm sm\u011brem. Argumenty pro zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb se scvrkly na dva: hlubok\u00fd deficit st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu a rychl\u00fd r\u016fst mezd. Pokud tedy vl\u00e1da p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed \u010cNB, \u017ee bude um\u011bt \u0161et\u0159it, nebudou \u010dlenov\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed rady hlasovat pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb. Podobn\u00e9 to je se mzdami. Pokud neporostou o v\u00edce jak 10 %, neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee \u010cNB zas\u00e1hne. Po ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed guvern\u00e9ra s premi\u00e9rem jsem m\u011bl pocit, \u017ee si oba rozum\u011bli. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1m proto, \u017ee \u010cNB bude vl\u00e1d\u011b v\u011b\u0159it. M\u016fj hlavn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 tedy po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s t\u00edm, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby se dokonce roku nezm\u011bn\u00ed a na p\u0159elomu roku dojde ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr Pikora, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil kv\u011btnov\u00fd index spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch cen. Zat\u00edmco v dubnu rostly ceny meziro\u010dn\u011b o 12,7 %, v kv\u011btnu rostou u\u017e jen o 11,1 <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1575\" title=\"Pikora: Inflace prudce brzd\u00ed\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1575","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-komentar"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1575","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1575"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1575\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1578,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1575\/revisions\/1578"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1575"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1575"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1575"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}