{"id":1397,"date":"2023-05-08T20:47:10","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T20:47:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1397"},"modified":"2023-05-08T20:47:10","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T20:47:10","slug":"mmf-varuje-pred-rychlejsim-propadem-cen-nemovitosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1397","title":{"rendered":"MMF varuje p\u0159ed rychlej\u0161\u00edm propadem cen nemovitost\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Zpr\u00e1vou tohoto t\u00fddne je, \u017ee Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu o \u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu na 3,75 procenta. To p\u0159edstavuje zpomalen\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, proto\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b ned\u00e1vno zvy\u0161ovala sv\u00e9 sazby o p\u016fl procentn\u00edho bodu. Tato zm\u011bna v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstupu je nejsp\u00ed\u0161 d\u00e1na t\u00edm, \u017ee statistiky z bankovn\u00edho sektoru euroz\u00f3ny uk\u00e1zaly nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pokles popt\u00e1vky po \u00fav\u011brech za v\u00edce ne\u017e deset let, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt vn\u00edm\u00e1no t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jako alarm.<\/strong><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Je ale mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee na centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159e v\u00edce zap\u016fsobila i statistika Eurostatu, podle kter\u00e9 poprv\u00e9 od roku 2015 poklesly v\u00a0Evrop\u011b ceny nemovitost\u00ed. Ve \u010dtvrt\u00e9m kvart\u00e1le poklesly ceny nap\u0159\u00ed\u010d EU o 1,5 %. A mo\u017en\u00e1 bude i h\u016f\u0159. To je z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bna v\u00a0ekonomice zalo\u017een\u00e9 na \u00fav\u011brech a zejm\u00e9na hypot\u00e9k\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<p>Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bnov\u00fd fond (MMF) v\u00a0dubnu varoval, \u017ee by korekce cen nemovitost\u00ed mohla pokra\u010dovat a dokonce nabrat na obr\u00e1tk\u00e1ch. MMF varuje, \u017ee pokud centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky d\u00e1le zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, budou ceny klesat rychleji. MMF tak\u00e9 varuje i p\u0159ed mo\u017enost\u00ed probl\u00e9m\u016f se spl\u00e1cen\u00edm hypot\u00e9k. To by p\u0159ineslo probl\u00e9my nejen dom\u00e1cnostem, ale i bank\u00e1m. To je mix, kter\u00fd se v\u00a0mnoh\u00e9m podob\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed krizi z\u00a0roku 2008.<\/p>\n<p>Poklesu cen nemovitost\u00ed se asi nevyhneme. Korekce cen je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 u\u017e jen proto, \u017ee MMF odhaduje, \u017ee ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b zem\u00ed Evropy je trh nemovitost\u00ed p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00fd o n\u011bjak\u00fdch 15 a\u017e 20 %.<\/p>\n<p>Zaj\u00edmavost\u00ed je, \u017ee tu m\u00e1me \u0159adu lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159eh\u0159\u00e1t\u00ed pova\u017euj\u00ed za norm\u00e1ln\u00ed a dokonce tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee kolem sebe \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd pokles cen nevid\u00ed. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee n\u011bkter\u00e9 regiony a n\u011bkter\u00e9 typy nemovitost\u00ed poklesem nepro\u0161ly. Statistika je v\u0161ak ne\u00faprosn\u00e1. Ceny nemovitost\u00ed jako celek klesaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Co bude s\u00a0\u00farokov\u00fdmi sazbami, kdy\u017e negativn\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed na ceny nemovitost\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Vzhledem k\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee letos bude pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e1 inflace euroz\u00f3ny na hladin\u011b 5,3 % a na dvouprocentn\u00ed c\u00edl se inflace dostane a\u017e v\u00a0roce 2025. Je celkem pochopiteln\u00e9, \u017ee MMF o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby ECB je\u0161t\u011b vzrostou a klesat za\u010dnou a\u017e v\u00a0polovin\u011b roku 2024.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud by se toto m\u011blo naplnit, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee ceny nemovitost\u00ed v\u00a0Evrop\u011b je\u0161t\u011b poklesnou. Nyn\u00ed je ot\u00e1zkou, jak moc klesnou. Velk\u00fd pokles cen nemovitost\u00ed by p\u0159edstavoval ohromn\u00fd probl\u00e9m pro banky, jim\u017e by se znehodnotily z\u00e1stavy hypot\u00e9k. Mo\u017en\u00e1 by pak ECB musela n\u011bkter\u00fdm komer\u010dn\u00edm bank\u00e1m pom\u00e1hat.<\/p>\n<p>Mysl\u00edm si proto, \u017ee by ECB m\u011bla p\u0159ibrzdit zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Mo\u017en\u00e1, \u017ee je st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed inflace men\u0161\u00edm probl\u00e9mem ne\u017e p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed a nemovitostn\u00ed krize. V tomto sv\u011btle jsem r\u00e1d, \u017ee \u010cNB na sv\u00e9m posledn\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159istoupila ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr Pikora, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Zpr\u00e1vou tohoto t\u00fddne je, \u017ee Evropsk\u00e1 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka (ECB) zv\u00fd\u0161ila svou z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu o \u010dtvrt procentn\u00edho bodu na 3,75 procenta. To p\u0159edstavuje zpomalen\u00ed zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1397\" title=\"MMF varuje p\u0159ed rychlej\u0161\u00edm propadem cen nemovitost\u00ed\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1397","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1397","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1397"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1397\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1398,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1397\/revisions\/1398"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}