\u010cNB sv\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm nep\u0159ekvapila a podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed rozhodla posedm\u00e9 v \u0159ad\u011b o stabilit\u011b sazeb. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba tak setrv\u00e1v\u00e1 na 7 %, kam se po s\u00e9rii zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed dostala v \u010dervnu 2022. <\/b><\/p>\n
P\u0159ekvapil ov\u0161em pom\u011br hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, kdy t\u0159i \u010dlenov\u00e9 bankovn\u00ed rady zvedli ruku pro 25bb hike, na p\u0159edchoz\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed hlasoval pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed pouze jeden ze sedmi \u010dlen\u016f.<\/p>\n
Sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed i nad\u00e1le z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ochota \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky br\u00e1nit nadm\u011brn\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm koruny, by\u0165 od lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho podzimu intervence ve prosp\u011bch koruny nebyly t\u0159eba. Nov\u00e1 progn\u00f3za otev\u00edr\u00e1 prostor pro sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb od druh\u00e9 poloviny leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, guvern\u00e9r Michl ov\u0161em jej\u00ed vyzn\u011bn\u00ed na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci m\u00edrnil, a i na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed se podle n\u011bj bude rozhodovat o stabilit\u011b nebo zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb.<\/p>\n
Spekulace ohledn\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na dne\u0161n\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00ed se uk\u00e1zaly jako z\u010d\u00e1sti opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9, kdy\u00a0stabilita sazeb byla odhlasov\u00e1na nejmen\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enou v\u011bt\u0161inou 4 hlas\u016f<\/b>. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b koment\u00e1\u0159\u016f z p\u0159edch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch t\u00fddn\u016f lze odhadovat, \u017ee pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb krom\u011b \u010dlena bankovn\u00ed rady Tom\u00e1\u0161e Holuba zvedl ruku i minim\u00e1ln\u011b jeden z nov\u00e1\u010dk\u016f v bankovn\u00ed rad\u011b (Jan Kub\u00ed\u010dek a Jan Proch\u00e1zka). Ve prosp\u011bch mo\u017en\u00e9ho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed se ale v minulosti vyjad\u0159ovala i viceguvern\u00e9rka Eva Zamrazilov\u00e1 spolu s viceguvern\u00e9rem Janem Fraitem. Odpov\u011bdi tak patrn\u011b nab\u00eddne a\u017e p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed t\u00fdden zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fd z\u00e1pis z jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. D\u016fvodem pro v\u00edce jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed postoj je zejm\u00e9na uvoln\u011bn\u00e1 fisk\u00e1ln\u00ed politika spolu s nejist\u00fdm mzdov\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem.<\/p>\n
Jarn\u00ed progn\u00f3za \u010cNB<\/b>\u00a0posouv\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b r\u016fstu\u00a0HDP<\/b>\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u011b sm\u011brem k na\u0161emu odhadu. P\u016fvodn\u011b \u010cNB p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala leto\u0161n\u00ed pokles o 0,3 %, nov\u011b o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 r\u016fst o 0,5 %. V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b\u00a0inflace<\/b>\u00a0do\u0161lo k m\u00edrn\u00e9mu posunu vzh\u016fru v kontextu leto\u0161n\u00edho roku (10,8 % na 11,2 %), hlavn\u00ed nejistotu ale vid\u00edme ve v\u00fdhledu \u010cNB na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok, kdy progn\u00f3za po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s rychlej\u0161\u00edm n\u00e1vratem ke 2% c\u00edli ne\u017e n\u00e1\u0161 odhad. U progn\u00f3zy ve vztahu k\u00a0\u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m<\/b>\u00a0do\u0161lo k o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e9 \u00faprav\u011b, kdy projekce nepo\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s r\u016fstem \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb ale naopak s jejich poklesem v Q3\u201923.<\/p>\n
Guvern\u00e9r Michl ov\u0161em tato o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci m\u00edrnil a tr\u017en\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed (sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed na p\u0159elomu Q3\/Q4\u201923 v dob\u011b TK) ozna\u010dil za p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e1.\u00a0U koruny<\/b>\u00a0o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010cNB postupn\u00e9 oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed ze sou\u010dasn\u00fdch \u00farovn\u00ed, kdy ke konci roku by se m\u011bl kurz v\u016f\u010di euru pohybovat okolo 24,0 EUR\/CZK. Dal\u0161\u00ed oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed za 24,50 EUR\/CZK vid\u00ed progn\u00f3za v roce 2024.<\/p>\n Ve v\u00fdsledku dne\u0161n\u00ed zased\u00e1n\u00ed nep\u0159ineslo okam\u017eitou zm\u011bnu, rostouc\u00ed po\u010det hlas\u016f pro zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb ale trh zasko\u010dil. To reflektuje v\u00fdvoj koruny, kter\u00e1 po zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed v\u00fdsledku hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed na tiskov\u00e9 konferenci skokov\u011b pos\u00edlila o n\u011bkolik hal\u00ed\u0159\u016f pod 23,50 EUR\/CZK. K posunu do\u0161lo i u o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ohledn\u011b v\u00fd\u0161e sazeb ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. P\u0159ed dne\u0161n\u00edm zased\u00e1n\u00edm trh p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dal, \u017ee sazby ke konci roku 2023 poklesnou o 60 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f.<\/p>\n Nyn\u00ed je o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1no sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 40bb, vylou\u010dena nen\u00ed ani varianta hiku na horizontu n\u011bkolika nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f. V\u016f\u010di na\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze, kter\u00e1 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazby od Q3\u201923 na 6,00 % ke konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, p\u0159edstavuje sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 riziko ve sm\u011bru pomalej\u0161\u00edho poklesu sazeb.<\/p>\n Rozhodnut\u00ed \u010cNB na \u010dervnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed bude v\u00fdznamn\u011b z\u00e1viset na datech ohledn\u011b v\u00fdvoji mezd v Q1\u201923\u00a0<\/b>(5.6.2023).\u00a0Pokud mzdov\u00e1 dynamika p\u0159ekvap\u00ed v\u00fdrazn\u011bji sm\u011brem vzh\u016fru, lze o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee koncem \u010dervna bankovn\u00ed rada zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed sazby o 25bb.<\/b><\/p>\n Autor: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik RB<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u010cNB sv\u00fdm rozhodnut\u00edm nep\u0159ekvapila a podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed rozhodla posedm\u00e9 v \u0159ad\u011b o stabilit\u011b sazeb. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba tak setrv\u00e1v\u00e1 na 7 %, kam se po […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1394"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1394\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1395,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1394\/revisions\/1395"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/54"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n\n
\n Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed sazba \u010cNB<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n <\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n % p.a.<\/td>\n \n \n \n \n \n Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Bloomberg<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n