{"id":1302,"date":"2023-04-16T08:40:47","date_gmt":"2023-04-16T08:40:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1302"},"modified":"2023-04-16T08:42:18","modified_gmt":"2023-04-16T08:42:18","slug":"inflace-v-breznu-klesla-na-mezirocnich-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1302","title":{"rendered":"B\u0159eznov\u00e1 inflace klesla na meziro\u010dn\u00edch 15 %"},"content":{"rendered":"

Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny v b\u0159eznu vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 15,0 %, mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b o 0,1 %. Stejn\u011b jako v \u00fanoru tak tempo klesalo u obou sledovan\u00fdch metrik. Mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b inflace poklesla z lednov\u00fdch 6,0 % na 0,6 % v \u00fanoru a nyn\u00ed do bl\u00edzkosti stagnace v b\u0159eznu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Meziro\u010dn\u00ed dynamika z lednov\u00fdch 17,5 % a \u00fanorov\u00fdch 16,7 % poklesla na rovn\u00fdch 15 % i d\u00edky vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u011b z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku, zejm\u00e9na v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b energi\u00ed a pohonn\u00fdch hmot. B\u0159eznov\u00fd v\u00fdsledek dopadl v souladu s na\u0161\u00edm i tr\u017en\u00edm odhadem a reakce na trhu je tak pouze velmi vla\u017en\u00e1.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i pohledu na mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fdsledek<\/b>\u00a0vy\u010dn\u00edvaj\u00ed 3 sektory, kde n\u00e1r\u016fst cen proti \u00fanoru p\u0159es\u00e1hl 1 %. Jde o sektor od\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed a obuvi, zdrav\u00ed a tak\u00e9 stravov\u00e1n\u00ed a ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed. V posledn\u00edm sektoru p\u0159isp\u011bl k vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmu r\u016fstu cen zejm\u00e9na rychlej\u0161\u00ed pohyb cen u ubytovac\u00edch (+2,5 %) ne\u017eli stravovac\u00edch (+0,9 %) slu\u017eeb.<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b rozklad i nad\u00e1le poukazuje na robustn\u00ed cenov\u00e9 tlaky v sektoru slu\u017eeb, by\u0165 n\u011bkter\u00e9 sektory jako je nap\u0159. rekreace a kultura i d\u00edky kon\u010d\u00edc\u00ed zimn\u00ed sez\u00f3n\u011b vykazovaly mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pokles cen. Ve sm\u011bru ni\u017e\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdsledku p\u016fsobil mj. m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles cen v odd\u00edle bydlen\u00ed, kde se pozitivn\u011b projevilo sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed cen zemn\u00edho plynu (-1,4 %).<\/p>\n

V souladu s na\u0161\u00edm odhadem zlevnily i pohonn\u00e9 hmoty, a to o necel\u00e9 2 %. Naopak p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161lo ze strany cen potravin, kde jsme ji\u017e v b\u0159eznu o\u010dek\u00e1vali m\u00edrn\u00fd mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00ed pokles. Nam\u00edsto toho ceny znovu rostly, tentokr\u00e1t o 0,4 %. Negativn\u011b se projevil zejm\u00e9na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen zeleniny (+5,0 %), tempo naopak sni\u017eovaly ceny vajec (-9,9 %) a m\u00e1sla (-6,3 %).<\/p>\n

Meziro\u010dn\u00ed pohled<\/b>\u00a0nab\u00edz\u00ed nev\u00eddan\u00e9, kdy po dlouh\u00e9 dob\u011b alespo\u0148 jeden ze sektor\u016f vykazuje pokles cen proti obdob\u00ed p\u0159ed rokem. Jde o sektor dopravy, kde zejm\u00e9na kv\u016fli vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u011b u pohonn\u00fdch hmot do\u0161lo k poklesu cen o 0,6 %. Samotn\u00e9 ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot jsou proti lo\u0148sk\u00e9mu roku ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed o 19,0 % (+0,4 % v \u00fanoru). V ostatn\u00edch sektorech ale z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed ceny nad\u00e1le vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. V\u00edce jak 20% meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst cen lze pozorovat u sektoru bydlen\u00ed, potravin a nealkoholick\u00fdch n\u00e1poj\u016f nebo tak\u00e9 stravov\u00e1n\u00ed a ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e1 inflace<\/b><\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n\n
Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
P\u0159edchoz\u00ed<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
RB<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
Trh<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
\u010cNB<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
v % r\/r<\/b><\/td>\n\n
15,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
16,7<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
14,9<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
15,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
14,8<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
v % m\/m<\/b><\/td>\n\n
0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,6<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 0,1<\/td>\n\n
0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
–<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, Bloomberg, \u010cNB<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s progn\u00f3zou \u010cNB je v\u00fdsledek inflace o 0,2 p.b. vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed. V zimn\u00ed progn\u00f3ze centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka o\u010dek\u00e1vala pro b\u0159ezen 14,8 %.\u00a0<\/b>Odchylka je tak minim\u00e1ln\u00ed a nem\u011bla by v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 velk\u00e9 revizi progn\u00f3zy na kv\u011btnov\u00e9m zased\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Rozklad p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstk\u016f mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho a meziro\u010dn\u00edho r\u016fstu cen (v p.b.)<\/b><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u00a0<\/b><\/td>\n\n
m\/m<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
r\/r<\/b><\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Potraviny a nealkoholick\u00e9 n\u00e1poje<\/td>\n\n
0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
4,2<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alkoholick\u00e9 n\u00e1poje, tab\u00e1k<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,5<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Od\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed a obuv<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,5<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bydlen\u00ed, voda, energie, paliva<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
5,7<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Bytov\u00e9 vybaven\u00ed, za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed dom\u00e1cnosti, opravy<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,7<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zdrav\u00ed<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,3<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Doprava<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
-0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Po\u0161ty a telekomunikace<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rekreace a kultura<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
1,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vzd\u011bl\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stravov\u00e1n\u00ed a ubytov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
1,2<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ostatn\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed a slu\u017eby<\/td>\n\n
0,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
0,8<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Celkem<\/b><\/td>\n\n
0,1<\/div>\n<\/td>\n
\n
15,0<\/div>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Zdroj: Raiffeisenbank, \u010cS\u00da<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Po pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 inflaci na 15,1 % v 2022, o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me inflaci letos na 11,3 %. V polovin\u011b roku bude meziro\u010dn\u00ed m\u00edra m\u00ed\u0159it sm\u011brem k jednocifern\u00fdm hodnot\u00e1m, ov\u0161em \u0159\u00edjnov\u00fd op\u011btovn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst z d\u016fvodu ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed srovn\u00e1vac\u00ed z\u00e1kladny nedovol\u00ed v leto\u0161n\u00edm roce meziro\u010dn\u00ed inflaci poklesnout o moc hloub\u011bji pod 10 %.<\/p>\n

Autor: Vratislav Z\u00e1mi\u0161, analytik<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00e9 ceny v b\u0159eznu vzrostly meziro\u010dn\u011b o 15,0 %, mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b o 0,1 %. Stejn\u011b jako v \u00fanoru tak tempo klesalo u obou sledovan\u00fdch metrik. Mezim\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":216,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1302","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-statistika"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1302","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1302"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1302\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1306,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1302\/revisions\/1306"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/216"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1302"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1302"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1302"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}