{"id":1236,"date":"2023-03-30T08:42:37","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T08:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1236"},"modified":"2023-03-30T08:42:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T08:42:48","slug":"cnb-nechala-repo-sazbu-beze-zmeny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1236","title":{"rendered":"\u010cNB nechala repo sazbu beze zm\u011bny"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Bankovn\u00ed rada \u010cNB ponechala 2T repo sazbu op\u011bt beze zm\u011bny. Ve prosp\u011bch zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb (o 25bb) hlasoval jeden \u010dlen bankovn\u00ed rady, ostatn\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 souhlasili se stabilitou. Sou\u010dasn\u011b bylo rozhodnuto o tom, \u017ee \u010cNB bude i nad\u00e1le br\u00e1nit p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00fdm nadm\u011brn\u00fdm v\u00fdkyv\u016fm kurzu koruny.<\/strong> <!--more--><\/p>\n<p>K t\u011bm ale navzdory turbulentn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu d\u011bn\u00ed na finan\u010dn\u00edm trhu v posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika dnech nedo\u0161lo. Tiskov\u00e1 konference byla stru\u010dn\u00e1. Guvern\u00e9r se vymezil proti o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed trhu, kter\u00fd dle FRA sazeb vyhl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb do konce roku 2023 o 100bb, co\u017e by znamenalo pokles hlavn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby na 6 % z aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch 7 %. Sou\u010dasn\u011b A. Michl uv\u00edtal silnou korunu, kter\u00e1 napom\u00e1h\u00e1 utahovat m\u011bnov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a dodal, \u017ee by \u201emohla b\u00fdt i siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Stejn\u011b jako na p\u0159edchoz\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed bankovn\u00ed rady \u010cNB nebyla vylou\u010dena mo\u017enost dal\u0161\u00edho zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb, pokud by se nap\u0159\u00edklad v datech uk\u00e1zal siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd r\u016fst mezd. Podle n\u00e1s je ale na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb s ohledem na \u010dasovou prodlevu p\u016fsoben\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9ho kan\u00e1lu na cenov\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ji\u017e pozd\u011b. Inflace je ji\u017e n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad 2% infla\u010dn\u00edm c\u00edlem, co\u017e vedlo k odkotven\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Je ot\u00e1zkou, zda by hike o 25bb m\u011bl dostate\u010dnou signaliza\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edlu ovlivnit sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed firem o inflaci.<\/p>\n<p>Vp\u0159edhled\u00edc\u00ed re\u00e1ln\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba \u2013 nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba m\u00ednus infla\u010dn\u00ed o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 relevantn\u00ed pro pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed n\u00e1kup\u016f \u010di investic, je p\u0159i zahrnut\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nefinan\u010dn\u00edch podnik\u016f na t\u0159i roky dop\u0159edu neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed. P\u0159i zohledn\u011bn\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00edho trhu je pak ex-ante re\u00e1ln\u00e1 sazba v\u00fdrazn\u011b kladn\u00e1 (zhruba u 4,4 %), jak argumentoval na dne\u0161n\u00ed tiskov\u00e9 konferenci guvern\u00e9r Michl.<\/p>\n<p>Finan\u010dn\u00ed trh vyhodnotil zased\u00e1n\u00ed \u010cNB m\u00edrn\u011b jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00edm sm\u011brem. FRA kontrakty posko\u010dily nahoru a investo\u0159i tak nepatrn\u011b zm\u00edrnili s\u00e1zky na leto\u0161n\u00ed sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb. V\u00fdnos dvoulet\u00e9ho vl\u00e1dn\u00edho dluhopisu v reakci na \u010cNB vzrostl o 0,12 procentn\u00edho bodu na 5,39 %. Koruna v\u016f\u010di euru pos\u00edlila na 23,57 EUR\/CZK, nicm\u00e9n\u011b sm\u011brem k siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u00farovn\u00edm se vydala ji\u017e dnes r\u00e1no.<\/p>\n<p>V na\u0161\u00ed progn\u00f3ze nad\u00e1le po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1me s prvn\u00edm sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb letos v srpnu. Celkov\u00e1 inflace v na\u0161em v\u00fdhledu dosahuje jednocifern\u00e9ho \u010d\u00edsla (v meziro\u010dn\u00edm srovn\u00e1n\u00ed) zhruba v polovin\u011b leto\u0161n\u00edho roku. I j\u00e1drov\u00e1 inflace, d\u00edky zvoln\u011bn\u00ed popt\u00e1vky dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed, v r\u00e1mci progn\u00f3zy ztr\u00e1c\u00ed postupn\u011b s\u00edlu. Tento v\u00fdvoj by m\u011bl v\u00e9st i ke sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed infla\u010dn\u00edch o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e by p\u0159i stabilit\u011b nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby dostalo re\u00e1lnou sazbu na vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farove\u0148, ne\u017e kde aktu\u00e1ln\u011b je, a kde ji \u010cNB vyhodnocuje jako dostate\u010dn\u011b restriktivn\u00ed. Na konci leto\u0161n\u00edho roku o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1me hlavn\u00ed \u00farokovou sazbu na 6 %.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Zdroj: koment\u00e1\u0159 Raiffeisenbank<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>Bankovn\u00ed rada \u010cNB ponechala 2T repo sazbu op\u011bt beze zm\u011bny. Ve prosp\u011bch zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb (o 25bb) hlasoval jeden \u010dlen bankovn\u00ed rady, ostatn\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 souhlasili se <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1236\" title=\"\u010cNB nechala repo sazbu beze zm\u011bny\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":54,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1236"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1236\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1238,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1236\/revisions\/1238"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/54"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}