{"id":1177,"date":"2023-03-20T20:13:06","date_gmt":"2023-03-20T20:13:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1177"},"modified":"2023-03-20T20:14:33","modified_gmt":"2023-03-20T20:14:33","slug":"pikora-krize-bankovniho-sektoru-nekonci","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1177","title":{"rendered":"Pikora: Krize bankovn\u00edho sektoru nekon\u010d\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy \u017eij\u00ed kolapsem americk\u00fdch bank a n\u00e1slednou z\u00e1chranou \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 Credit Suisse. Ten, kdo si myslel, \u017ee ve chv\u00edli, kdy \u0161v\u00fdcarskou banku se 167letou histori\u00ed p\u0159evezme v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed konkurent UBS, se situace na trhu zlep\u0161\u00ed, se zm\u00fdlil. Na trhu d\u00e1le vl\u00e1dne strach. To se zrcadl\u00ed v poklesu cen akci\u00ed bankovn\u00edho sektoru.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Akcie UBS v\u00fdrazn\u011b klesaj\u00ed, a to i p\u0159esto, \u017ee se mnoz\u00ed domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00edskala mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed majetek, ne\u017e co zaplatila. D\u016fvodem je obecn\u00fd strach z toho, \u017ee bankovn\u00ed krize s Credit Suisse nekon\u010d\u00ed. Trh vid\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed rizika.<\/p>\n

Zklam\u00e1n nen\u00ed jen trh, ale i politici<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0160v\u00fdcar\u0161t\u00ed politici se nyn\u00ed p\u0159ou o to, zda z\u00e1chrana Credit Suisse prob\u011bhla spr\u00e1vn\u011b a zda najednou nevznikne finan\u010dn\u00ed obr, kter\u00fd si ani bohat\u00e9 \u0160v\u00fdcarsko nem\u016f\u017ee dovolit. Jde o to, \u017ee tyto dv\u011b banky mohou podle dohody benefitovat a\u017e z t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 260 miliard \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch frank\u016f z ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, co\u017e je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 t\u0159etina \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9ho hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu. P\u0159i\u010dem\u017e 250 miliard je dodan\u00e1 likvidita, kter\u00e1 bude jednou vr\u00e1cena, a 9 miliard ur\u010dila vl\u00e1da na pokryt\u00ed ztr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

I v zemi pln\u00e9 bank jsou Credit Suisse a UBS t\u011b\u017ek\u00fdmi v\u00e1hami. To je asi takov\u00e9, jako by u n\u00e1s \u010cesk\u00e1 spo\u0159itelna p\u0159evzala \u010cSOB, tedy kdyby ohromn\u00e1 banka p\u0159evzala jinou ohromnou banku. O velikosti sv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed i to, \u017ee UBS m\u00e1 73 tis\u00edc a Credit Suisse 50 tis\u00edc zam\u011bstnanc\u016f.<\/p>\n

\u0160\u00e9f \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00fdch soci\u00e1ln\u00edch demokrat\u016f Roger Nordmann tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee z\u00e1chrann\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek p\u0159edstavuje pro \u0160v\u00fdcarsko velk\u00e9 riziko, ale i pravicov\u00ed politici transakci kritizuj\u00ed. Spole\u010dn\u011b pak poukazuj\u00ed na riziko propou\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, bez kter\u00e9ho si z\u00e1chranu banky nedok\u00e1\u017eu ani p\u0159edstavit. Znovu se ukazuje, \u017ee ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku se o bank\u00e9\u0159e um\u011bj\u00ed postarat. Posledn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee i p\u0159es konec Credit Suisse budou jej\u00edm zam\u011bstnanc\u016fm vyplaceny bonusy v pln\u00e9 m\u00ed\u0159e, co\u017e rozhodn\u011b nepova\u017euji za spr\u00e1vn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Pokra\u010duje n\u00e1kaza?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dovou ot\u00e1zkou je, jestli maj\u00ed \u0161karohl\u00eddi pravdu a zda bude n\u00e1kaza pokra\u010dovat, nebo jestli jsme u\u017e z nejhor\u0161\u00edho venku. R\u00e1d bych \u0159ekl, \u017ee to nejhor\u0161\u00ed je za n\u00e1mi. Jen\u017ee kdyby tomu tak bylo, pro\u010d by padaly akcie bank? Kdyby bylo v\u0161e sluncem zalit\u00e9, tak akcie rostou. A to se ned\u011bje.<\/p>\n

Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee trhy neuklidnila ani zpr\u00e1va, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky Ameriky, Kanady, Brit\u00e1nie, Japonska i cel\u00e9 Evropsk\u00e9 unie dohromady dolij\u00ed na trhy likviditu, aby se bank\u00e1m dob\u0159e d\u00fdchalo. To d\u0159\u00edve v\u017edy fungovalo a najednou nic. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee nyn\u00ed o likviditu nejde. Jde tu o n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho.<\/p>\n

Jsem p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den o tom, \u017ee se centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky z minul\u00e9 krize pou\u010dily a nenechaj\u00ed ani men\u0161\u00ed banky padnout, nato\u017e aby nechaly padnout obrovsk\u00e9 banky ve \u0160v\u00fdcarsku. To by byl kolaps podobn\u00fd Lehman Brothers z roku 2008, co\u017e nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nenastane.<\/p>\n

To, \u010deho se nyn\u00ed investo\u0159i boj\u00ed, jsou dluhopisy ozna\u010dovan\u00e9 jako AT1 \u2013 n\u011bkdy ozna\u010dovan\u00e9 jako CoCo dluhopisy. U t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f plat\u00ed, \u017ee mohou b\u00fdt sm\u011bn\u011bny na akcie nebo mohou b\u00fdt odeps\u00e1ny, pokud kapit\u00e1l banky poklesne pod ur\u010ditou hodnotu. A zde p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed h\u00e1\u010dek.<\/p>\n

\u0160v\u00fdcarsk\u00fd regul\u00e1tor prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee dluhopisy AT1 v nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnot\u011b 17 miliard dolar\u016f maj\u00ed nulovou hodnotu, co\u017e rozezlilo investory. Ti toti\u017e v\u016fbec nepo\u010d\u00edtali s t\u00edm, \u017ee by mohl takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 nastat. Nyn\u00ed tak jedna strana ukazuje na druhou a vrt\u00ed prstem, \u017ee takov\u00e9 byly podm\u00ednky hry a \u017ee si investo\u0159i \u0161patn\u011b p\u0159e\u010detli prospekt. Jin\u00ed zase poukazuj\u00ed na st\u00e1tn\u00edho \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edka v pozici dozoru, \u017ee on je t\u00edm, kdo investory okradl.<\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd kan\u00e1l krize<\/strong><\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e je to jakkoli, d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je, \u017ee skrze tyto dluhopisy z\u00edsk\u00e1valy kapit\u00e1l i jin\u00e9 velk\u00e9 banky. Investo\u0159i se najednou boj\u00ed, \u017ee tam by se jim mohl odehr\u00e1t stejn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 a v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b z\u00e1chrany bank by nedostali nic.<\/p>\n

Najednou se tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee byli zachr\u00e1n\u011bni v\u0161ichni krom\u011b investor\u016f do dluhopis\u016f. Ti si p\u0159itom mysleli, \u017ee jejich pozice je lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e pozice akcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f. Tak to sice platilo v minulosti, ale nyn\u00ed u\u017e tomu tak nen\u00ed. Rozhodnut\u00ed \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9ho regul\u00e1tora proto mnoz\u00ed ozna\u010duj\u00ed za nechutnost roku, na co\u017e j\u00e1 \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m: \u201cNikdy nev\u011b\u0159te st\u00e1tu\u201c. St\u00e1t m\u011b op\u011bt zklamal, nev\u011b\u0159\u00edm mu.<\/p>\n

Bankovn\u00ed krize tak mo\u017en\u00e1 na\u0161la nov\u00fd kan\u00e1l n\u00e1kazy, kter\u00fd jsme z minul\u00e9 krize nepamatovali. Banky vlastn\u011b ani padat nemus\u00ed, a p\u0159esto si n\u011bkdo jejich probl\u00e9my odsk\u00e1\u010de. To je pro finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy sice lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e kolaps bankovn\u00edch kolos\u016f, ale rozhodn\u011b to nen\u00ed dobr\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed si t\u011b\u017eko dok\u00e1\u017eu p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky pokra\u010duj\u00ed ve zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sv\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb, jen\u017ee trh o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i sazby zvednou. Pokud by nyn\u00ed sazby nezvedli, znamenalo by to, \u017ee potvrzuj\u00ed velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my bank. To ale centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky necht\u011bj\u00ed, tou\u017e\u00ed po tom, aby v\u0161e vypadalo jako vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9.<\/p>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b jednou mali\u010dko zvednou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Pak jako by nic zapo\u010dne kolo sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. To ale znamen\u00e1 konec boje s inflac\u00ed. Jsem toho n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee inflace tu bude d\u00e9le, ne\u017e jsme si p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci mysleli. A proto je nutn\u00e9 investovat v\u00edce, ne\u017e jsme po\u010d\u00edtali.<\/p>\n

Vladim\u00edr Pikora, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy \u017eij\u00ed kolapsem americk\u00fdch bank a n\u00e1slednou z\u00e1chranou \u0161v\u00fdcarsk\u00e9 Credit Suisse. Ten, kdo si myslel, \u017ee ve chv\u00edli, kdy \u0161v\u00fdcarskou banku se 167letou histori\u00ed […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-banky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1177"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1181,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1177\/revisions\/1181"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}