{"id":1147,"date":"2023-03-17T08:43:34","date_gmt":"2023-03-17T08:43:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1147"},"modified":"2023-03-17T08:43:34","modified_gmt":"2023-03-17T08:43:34","slug":"pikora-komentuje-pad-americkych-bank","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1147","title":{"rendered":"Pikora komentuje p\u00e1d americk\u00fdch bank"},"content":{"rendered":"

Co je zdrojem krize? Teorie na to byly r\u016fzn\u00e9, v\u017edy ale fungovaly jen za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 nebylo poka\u017ed\u00e9 snadn\u00e9 naplnit. A pak tam byla teorie cyklu takzvan\u00e9 Rakousk\u00e9 \u0161koly, kter\u00e1 zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159\u00edkala, \u017ee za to m\u016f\u017ee v\u017edy stejn\u00fd faktor, a t\u00edm je centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka. Jako studentovi se mi tato teorie nel\u00edbila, proto\u017ee hodit v\u0161e na centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159e mi p\u0159i\u0161lo a\u017e moc zjednodu\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed. Dnes d\u00e1v\u00e1m t\u00e9to teorii za pravdu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Ano, pr\u016f\u0161vihem jsou centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed se v\u017edy tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed g\u00e9niov\u00e9, ale ve skute\u010dnosti jsou stejn\u011b proz\u00edrav\u00ed jako v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 kolem. To jsme vid\u011bli u posledn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed finan\u010dn\u00ed krize, kdy, kdy\u017e to zjednodu\u0161\u00edm, centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 prudce zvy\u0161ovali \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. \u0158ada lid\u00ed tehdy neunesla spl\u00e1cen\u00ed hypot\u00e9k. To vyvolalo propad na hypote\u010dn\u00edm trhu, znehodnocen\u00ed z\u00e1stav bank a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed krize byla na sv\u011bt\u011b.<\/p>\n

Te\u010f to vypad\u00e1 hodn\u011b podobn\u011b. Kv\u016fli covidu sn\u00ed\u017eily centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby k nule (v Euroz\u00f3n\u011b byly u\u017e p\u0159edt\u00edm sazby dokonce pod nulou). A proto\u017ee b\u011bhem covidu m\u011bli lid\u00e9 i firmy strach z budoucnosti, odlo\u017eili v\u00fddaje. Vklady v bank\u00e1ch rostly. Jen\u017ee nebylo kde v\u00fdnosn\u011b um\u00eds\u0165ovat takto z\u00edskan\u00e9 pen\u00edze, a tak za\u010daly banky nakupovat st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. Ty byly najednou velmi drah\u00e9.<\/p>\n

St\u0159ih. O p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 vystrkovat r\u016f\u017eky inflace. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i jsou vyd\u011b\u0161eni. A co za\u010dnou d\u011blat? Za\u010dnou prudce zvy\u0161ovat \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee za\u010dnou ceny st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f klesat a jejich v\u00fdnosy r\u016fst.<\/p>\n

St\u0159ih. Najednou se rozb\u011bhla \u0161u\u0161kanda, \u017ee mohou m\u00edt n\u011bkter\u00e9 banky probl\u00e9my. Klienti Silicon Valley Bank n\u011bco v\u011bt\u0159\u00ed a za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed vyb\u00edrat vklady. Banka najednou nem\u00e1 likviditu a pot\u0159ebuje pen\u00edze. Je donucena k n\u011b\u010demu, co nikdy necht\u011bla ud\u011blat \u2013 mus\u00ed prodat dluhopisy. Tak\u017ee prod\u00e1v\u00e1 za ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ceny, ne\u017e nakupovala, a proto utrp\u00ed velkou ztr\u00e1tu. Kdyby nebyla nucena dluhopisy kv\u016fli probl\u00e9m\u016fm s likviditou prodat, v\u0161e by bylo r\u016f\u017eov\u00e9. Po\u010dkala by do splatnosti dluhopis\u016f a bylo by to v po\u0159\u00e1dku. Takto to v po\u0159\u00e1dku nen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Zjednodu\u0161me p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh: Jakmile vyjde ven informace o ztr\u00e1t\u011b z dluhopisov\u00e9 operace, za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00ed ceny akci\u00ed banky padat a za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 klasick\u00fd run na banku podobn\u00fd tomu, kter\u00fd jsme vloni vid\u011bli u n\u00e1s v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Sberbank.<\/p>\n

Jak se to bude \u0159e\u0161it?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e byla posledn\u00ed krize, nechali Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 padnout Lehman Brothers, proto\u017ee necht\u011bli podporovat to, \u017ee n\u011bkdo \u0161patn\u011b zainvestuje a pak ho z toho m\u00e1 tahat st\u00e1t. Bylo to vn\u00edm\u00e1no jako mor\u00e1ln\u00ed hazard.<\/p>\n

Dnes se sv\u011bt posunul v\u00edce doleva. Mor\u00e1ln\u00ed hazard u\u017e tolik nevad\u00ed a rozd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch pen\u011bz na cokoli je mezit\u00edm standardem. A tak se nyn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup americk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f m\u011bn\u00ed. Ud\u011blaj\u00ed cokoli, aby trh zklidnili a budou klidn\u011b platit jak mourovat\u00ed. Jsou ochotni \u201emimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b\u201c zv\u00fd\u0161it garanci na vklady.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b v\u011bc se mezit\u00edm stejn\u011b vymkla \u00fa\u0159ad\u016fm z rukou. Pad\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed banka \u2013 tentokr\u00e1t Signature Bank. I nad n\u00ed p\u0159evzaly kontrolu Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed spole\u010dnost pro poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed vklad\u016f.<\/p>\n

Co bude d\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Te\u010f je ot\u00e1zkou, jestli padnou dal\u0161\u00ed banky. Mnoho lid\u00ed se sna\u017e\u00ed situaci uklidnit. Optimistick\u00e1 vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed jak od vl\u00e1dn\u00edch funkcion\u00e1\u0159\u016f, tak i od analytik\u016f. Mnoz\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je v\u0161e v pohod\u011b.<\/p>\n

J\u00e1 jsem ale opatrn\u00fd. Pamatuji, jak n\u00e1s v roce 2008 mnoz\u00ed uklid\u0148ovali, \u017ee se nem\u00e1me \u010deho b\u00e1t. Tehdy se \u0159\u00edkalo, \u017ee jsou na\u0161e banky zdrav\u00e9 a odd\u011blen\u00e9 od americk\u00fdch. Zn\u011blo to chyt\u0159e a logicky a stejn\u011b se n\u00e1m krize nevyhnula.<\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je nyn\u00ed nikoli matematick\u00fd \u010di finan\u010dn\u00ed, probl\u00e9m je psychologick\u00fd. Pokud na glob\u00e1ln\u00ed investory p\u0159ijde strach, tak s t\u00edm centr\u00e1ln\u00ed bank\u00e9\u0159i ani politici nic nezmohou. Je to o na\u0161ich hlav\u00e1ch. Pokud budou lid\u00e9 hromadn\u011b vyb\u00edrat pen\u00edze z bank a opou\u0161t\u011bt finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy, nikdo to nezastav\u00ed. Je to jen o na\u0161\u00ed d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e v syst\u00e9m.<\/p>\n

Jsem nerv\u00f3zn\u00ed, kdy\u017e vid\u00edm, \u017ee dnes padaj\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 akciov\u00e9 tituly. Kdyby bylo v\u0161e tak OK, jak mnoz\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, tak akcie bank nepadaj\u00ed. To, \u017ee padaj\u00ed, jasn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee riziko tu je. Jak velk\u00e9 je, to ov\u0161em nev\u00edme. Na to pot\u0159ebujeme v\u00edce \u010dasu.<\/p>\n

Kon\u010d\u00ed boj s inflac\u00ed?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Nelze vylou\u010dit, \u017ee kon\u010d\u00ed n\u00e1\u0161 boj s inflac\u00ed. Je\u0161t\u011b v \u00fater\u00fd minul\u00e9ho t\u00fddne \u0161\u00e9f americk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky trh varoval, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby porostou v\u00edce, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo a z\u016fstanou v\u00fd\u0161 d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo. Najednou tato slova vypadaj\u00ed divn\u011b a trh jim u\u017e nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Co je podle v\u00e1s pro centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banku v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pr\u016f\u0161vih: americk\u00e1 inflace kolem 6 %, nebo p\u00e1d bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu?<\/p>\n

Podle trhu dluhopis\u016f by byl v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm pr\u016f\u0161vihem p\u00e1d bankovn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu. Boj s inflac\u00ed centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka vzd\u00e1, proto\u017ee vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby by banky nemusely un\u00e9st.<\/p>\n

A co bude s inflac\u00ed? Nyn\u00ed by s inflac\u00ed m\u011bla bojovat vl\u00e1da. Ale ud\u011bl\u00e1 to? Bude opravdu radik\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161et\u0159it? Nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nebude. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m to proto, \u017ee v USA nebudou \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby vysok\u00e9 d\u00e9le, ne\u017e se \u010dekalo, ale inflace ano.<\/p>\n

Co alternativn\u00ed investice?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jako bezpe\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstav se op\u011bt uk\u00e1zalo zlato. Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ichni lekli, \u017ee se sv\u011bt op\u011bt \u0159\u00edt\u00ed do probl\u00e9m\u016f, za\u010dali nakupovat \u017elut\u00fd kov a cena zlata se utrhla ze \u0159et\u011bzu. Je\u0161t\u011b ve st\u0159edu byla pod 1820 dolary za unci, aby se dnes vy\u0161plhala k 1910 dolar\u016fm. Ohromn\u00e9 podra\u017een\u00ed ukazuje, jak v\u00fdrazn\u011b se finan\u010dn\u00ed trhy ot\u0159\u00e1saj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee by lid\u00e9 opou\u0161t\u011bli riziko. A\u010dkoli akcie padaj\u00ed, Bitcoin let\u00ed nahoru. V prvotn\u00ed reakci na Silicon Valley Bank sice Bitcoin poklesl, ale posl\u00e9ze \u0159ada lid\u00ed usoudila, \u017ee to s Bitcoinem nem\u00e1 nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho. I kdy\u017e tady je podle m\u011b situace velmi komplikovan\u00e1 a v\u00fdhled nen\u00ed v\u016fbec jasn\u00fd. Jak Silicon Valley Bank, tak Sinature Bank byly namo\u010deny v kryptopodnik\u00e1n\u00ed. Bitcoin podle m\u011b je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed za vodou.<\/p>\n

Vladim\u00edr Pikora, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Co je zdrojem krize? Teorie na to byly r\u016fzn\u00e9, v\u017edy ale fungovaly jen za ur\u010dit\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, kter\u00e9 nebylo poka\u017ed\u00e9 snadn\u00e9 naplnit. A pak tam byla […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1147","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1147"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1147\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1148,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1147\/revisions\/1148"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1147"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1147"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1147"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}