{"id":1116,"date":"2023-03-14T10:42:41","date_gmt":"2023-03-14T10:42:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1116"},"modified":"2023-03-14T13:48:03","modified_gmt":"2023-03-14T13:48:03","slug":"lide-velmi-vyrazne-setri-uz-se-ale-oklepeme-z-nejhorsiho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1116","title":{"rendered":"Lid\u00e9 \u0161et\u0159\u00ed, u\u017e jsme ale z nejhor\u0161\u00edho"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil nov\u00e1 data z\u00a0maloobchodu. Re\u00e1ln\u00e9 tr\u017eby se v maloobchod\u011b v lednu meziro\u010dn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily o 7,7 %. Za nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed klesly o 9,5 % a za potraviny o 8,0 %. Pokles maloobchodu tak trv\u00e1 ji\u017e dev\u011bt m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00a0\u0159ad\u011b, co\u017e ekonomiku velmi dus\u00ed. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee to nejhor\u0161\u00ed m\u00e1me u\u017e za sebou, proto\u017ee propad u\u017e nen\u00ed tak velk\u00fd jako na podzim.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>Dobrou zpr\u00e1vou je, \u017ee u\u017e neplat\u00ed, \u017ee lid\u00e9 na v\u0161em \u0161et\u0159\u00ed. Kone\u010dn\u011b se objevily segmenty ekonomiky, kde se utr\u00e1c\u00ed v\u00edce, mezi kter\u00e9 pat\u0159\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad od\u011bvy, obuv \u010di kosmetika.<\/p>\n<p>To, \u017ee st\u00e1le klesaj\u00ed tr\u017eby za potraviny, je ale varov\u00e1n\u00ed. Zde je pot\u0159eba upozornit, \u017ee se jedn\u00e1 o re\u00e1ln\u00e1 data, tedy o\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 o inflaci. Nem\u016f\u017eeme tedy tvrdit, \u017ee lid\u00e9 \u0161et\u0159\u00ed kv\u016fli rostouc\u00edm cen\u00e1m. Z\u00e1kazn\u00edci zkr\u00e1tka nemaj\u00ed pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 jim miz\u00ed v energi\u00edch, n\u00e1jmech a hypot\u00e9k\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n<p>Zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 je, \u017ee i kdy\u017e nejsou pen\u00edze na potraviny, lid\u00e9 nakupuj\u00ed auta a po\u010det prodan\u00fdch voz\u016f re\u00e1ln\u011b roste. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee je to d\u00e1no rozev\u00edraj\u00edc\u00edmi se p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdmi n\u016f\u017eky ve spole\u010dnosti. \u0158ada lid\u00ed nebyla z\u00e1sadn\u011b zasa\u017een\u00e1 kriz\u00ed a pen\u00edze st\u00e1le m\u00e1. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee jsou to zejm\u00e9na ti, kte\u0159\u00ed u\u017e maj\u00ed splacenou hypot\u00e9ku a nemus\u00ed platit n\u00e1jem.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Bohat\u00fd zoufal\u00e9mu nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Jsem toho n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee rozev\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjmov\u00fdch n\u016f\u017eek stoj\u00ed za posledn\u00edm pnut\u00edm ve spole\u010dnosti. \u0158ada lid\u00ed u\u017e nem\u00e1 pen\u00edze a je zoufal\u00e1, ostatn\u00ed pen\u00edze naopak maj\u00ed a t\u011bm zoufal\u00fdm nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b je na soci\u00e1ln\u00edch s\u00edt\u00edch rovnou ur\u00e1\u017e\u00ed. Lid\u00e9 bez pen\u011bz pak nemaj\u00ed nikde zast\u00e1n\u00ed a roste vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9 nepochopen\u00ed ve spole\u010dnosti.<\/p>\n<p>Krom toho se m\u011bn\u00ed trendy v obchod\u011b. Zat\u00edmco d\u0159\u00edve prudce rostl prodej p\u0159es internet, dnes je to naopak. Internetov\u00e9 obchody zaznamenaly t\u0159in\u00e1ct\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc v \u0159ad\u011b pokles prodeje. Tady \u0161lo p\u016fvodn\u011b mluvit o efektu covidu, kdy lid\u00e9 ve strachu z\u00a0n\u00e1kazy hodn\u011b nakupovali on-line, aby se po konci covidu vr\u00e1tili k p\u016fvodn\u00edmu zp\u016fsobu n\u00e1kupu. To u\u017e ale dnes neplat\u00ed. Ukazuje se, \u017ee tady jde o trend, kdy si lid\u00e9 cht\u011bj\u00ed zbo\u017e\u00ed nejprve prohl\u00e9dnout a vyzkou\u0161et, ne\u017e n\u011bco koup\u00ed. Tady nejde o konec strachu z covidu, ale o zm\u011bnu preferenc\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Co bude d\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Za cel\u00fd rok 2022 poklesly maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby o 3,6 %, co\u017e je hodn\u011b. To byla hlavn\u00ed brzda ekonomiky. Za rok 2023 asi neuvid\u00edme dramaticky lep\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00edsla, proto\u017ee ekonomika bude st\u00e1le pod tlakem vysok\u00e9 inflace, a tedy dal\u0161\u00edho propadu re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd. Pen\u00edze na \u00fatraty nebudou. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ale u\u017e oklepeme z nejhor\u0161\u00edho. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m proto letos stagnaci a\u017e m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles maloobchodn\u00edch tr\u017eeb v rozmez\u00ed 0 a\u017e -0,5 %.<\/p>\n<p>Z pohledu centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky data ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee lid\u00e9 na vysok\u00e9 ceny reaguj\u00ed. T\u00edm v\u0161ak brzd\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst cen. Kdyby lid\u00e9 na r\u016fst cen nereagovali, byl by to argument pro vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Takto pot\u0159eba vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch sazeb sl\u00e1bne, nav\u00edc p\u00e1dy americk\u00fdch bank glob\u00e1ln\u011b varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi sazbami. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1m proto, \u017ee \u010cNB nezm\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby je\u0161t\u011b mnoho m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f.<\/p>\n<p>Koruna na statistiku nijak nereagovala. Je v oslabuj\u00edc\u00edm m\u00f3du i bez n\u00ed. S p\u00e1dem americk\u00fdch bank vyprchala ochota podstupovat rizika, a tak spekulanti vykl\u00edzej\u00edc\u00ed pozice, n\u00e1sledkem \u010deho\u017e koruna oslabuje.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Vladim\u00edr Pikora, hlavn\u00ed ekonom skupiny Comfort Finance Group<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<div class=\"mh-excerpt\"><p>\u010cesk\u00fd statistick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad dnes zve\u0159ejnil nov\u00e1 data z\u00a0maloobchodu. Re\u00e1ln\u00e9 tr\u017eby se v maloobchod\u011b v lednu meziro\u010dn\u011b sn\u00ed\u017eily o 7,7 %. Za nepotravin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 zbo\u017e\u00ed klesly o <a class=\"mh-excerpt-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=1116\" title=\"Lid\u00e9 \u0161et\u0159\u00ed, u\u017e jsme ale z nejhor\u0161\u00edho\">[&#8230;]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":1117,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1116","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1116","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1116"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1116\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1134,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1116\/revisions\/1134"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/1117"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1116"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1116"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1116"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}