{"id":102,"date":"2022-11-10T16:52:06","date_gmt":"2022-11-10T16:52:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=102"},"modified":"2022-11-11T09:40:20","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T09:40:20","slug":"cba-zverejnila-makroekonomickou-prognozu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/?p=102","title":{"rendered":"\u010cBA zve\u0159ejnila makroekonomickou progn\u00f3zu"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed asociace zve\u0159ejnila novou makroekonomickou progn\u00f3zu. S anal\u00fdzou sezn\u00e1mili z\u00e1jemce hlavn\u00ed ekonom KB Jan Vejm\u011blek, hlavn\u00ed ekonom \u010cBA Jakub Seidler a hlavn\u00ed ekonom Banky Creditas Petr Dufek.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1<\/span>\u00a0bankovn\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0asociace<\/span>\u00a0v nov\u00e9 makroekonomick\u00e9 progn\u00f3ze zlep\u0161ila odhad leto\u0161n\u00edho r\u016fstu HDP na 2,5 procenta, v srpnu o\u010dek\u00e1vala 2,4 procenta. Ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bl p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ekonomiky. P\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok podle\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0\u010dek\u00e1\u00a0\u010cesko<\/span>\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 stagnace s r\u016fstem HDP o 0,2 procenta.\u00a0\u010cesko<\/span>\u00a0podle\u00a0asociace<\/span>\u00a0vstoupilo ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed do recese, hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 o\u017eiven\u00ed p\u0159ijde a\u017e ve druh\u00e9m \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed 2023.<\/p>\n

Do v\u00fdvoje HDP se v\u00fdrazn\u011b prom\u00edtne zpomalen\u00ed spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by m\u011bla podle\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0klesnout o 0,5 procenta, a z\u016fstane tak v\u00edce ne\u017e t\u0159i procenta pod \u00farovn\u00ed roku 2019, posledn\u00edho p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed. Nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u016fst podle progn\u00f3zy vyk\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok spot\u0159eba vl\u00e1dn\u00edho sektoru, kter\u00e1 se zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed o 1,5 procenta. Investice i exporty by v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce m\u011bly vzr\u016fst o jedno procento.<\/p>\n

Ministerstvo<\/span>\u00a0financ\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0(MF) ve st\u0159edu rovn\u011b\u017e zve\u0159ejnilo novou makroekonomickou progn\u00f3zu. V n\u00ed zlep\u0161ilo leto\u0161n\u00ed odhad r\u016fstu hrub\u00e9ho dom\u00e1c\u00edho produktu na 2,4 procenta. V srpnu odhadovalo r\u016fst 2,2 procenta. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce \u010dek\u00e1 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd pokles o 0,2 procenta.\u00a0Ministr<\/span>\u00a0financ\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0Zbyn\u011bk<\/span>\u00a0Stanjura<\/span>\u00a0(ODS<\/span>) \u0159ekl, \u017ee ekonomika za\u010dala klesat ve t\u0159et\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed, mezikvart\u00e1ln\u00ed pokles p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 i v posledn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed leto\u0161n\u00edho a v prvn\u00edm \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku.<\/p>\n

Celoro\u010dn\u00ed inflace t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 16 procent<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00edra inflace podle\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0letos na konci roku vystoup\u00e1 na 18,1 procenta, celoro\u010dn\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br bude 15,7 procenta. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce tempo r\u016fstu cen zpomal\u00ed na pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00fdch 9,7 procenta. \u201eR\u016fst\u00a0spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch<\/span>\u00a0cen, podpo\u0159en\u00fd v\u00fdrazn\u00fdm zdra\u017een\u00edm energi\u00ed, z\u016fstane do konce roku nad\u00e1le vysok\u00fd, hranici 20 procent by v\u0161ak p\u0159ekro\u010dit nem\u011bl. Jeho odezn\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed bude v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce jen pozvoln\u00e9 a dosa\u017een\u00ed dvouprocentn\u00edho c\u00edle se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nedo\u010dk\u00e1me ani do konce roku 2024,” uvedl\u00a0hlavn\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0ekonom<\/span>\u00a0Komer\u010dn\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0banky<\/span>\u00a0Jan<\/span>\u00a0Vejm\u011blek<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby\u00a0\u010cesk\u00e9<\/span>\u00a0n\u00e1rodn\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0banky<\/span>\u00a0(\u010cNB<\/span>) se podle progn\u00f3zy\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0u\u017e letos nezm\u011bn\u00ed a z\u016fstanou na sedmi procentech. Klesat za\u010dnou a\u017e ve druh\u00e9 polovin\u011b p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku, ale sni\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed bude pozvoln\u00e9. Na konci roku 2023 by se m\u011bly dostat na 5,75 procenta.<\/p>\n

Inflace zp\u016fsobuje i pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd, proto\u017ee nomin\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u016fst nepokr\u00fdv\u00e1 zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed cen. Letos\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 pokles re\u00e1ln\u00fdch mezd o 8,5 procenta, p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok dal\u0161\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed o 2,3 procenta.<\/p>\n

Nezam\u011bstnanost by m\u011bla z\u016fstat ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

I p\u0159es n\u00e1stup recese neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0v\u00fdrazn\u00fd r\u016fst nezam\u011bstnanosti. Podle progn\u00f3zy by leto\u0161n\u00ed pr\u016fm\u011br m\u011bl b\u00fdt 3,5 procenta, v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by se m\u011bl zv\u00fd\u0161it na 3,9 procenta. \u201eVzhledem k dlouhodob\u011b p\u0159etrv\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edmu nap\u011bt\u00ed na trhu pr\u00e1ce je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9 jen pom\u011brn\u011b m\u00edrn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed m\u00edry nezam\u011bstnanosti, kter\u00e9 bude ov\u0161em doprov\u00e1zet rychl\u00fd \u00fabytek voln\u00fdch pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst,” uvedl\u00a0hlavn\u00ed<\/span>\u00a0ekonom<\/span>\u00a0Banky<\/span>\u00a0Creditas<\/span>\u00a0Petr<\/span>\u00a0Dufek<\/span>.<\/p>\n

Deficit ve\u0159ejn\u00fdch financ\u00ed letos\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0odhaduje na 4,9 procenta HDP. P\u0159esto\u017ee inflace p\u0159inesla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed da\u0148ov\u00e9 inkaso, mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fddaje st\u00e1tu v d\u016fsledku v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b tak\u00e9 rostly. V p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by m\u011bl deficit klesnout na 4,1 procenta HDP. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed dluh by letos m\u011bl vzr\u016fst na 43,3 procenta HDP z lo\u0148sk\u00fdch 42 procent, v roce 2023 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed na 44 procent HDP.<\/p>\n

Dynamiku \u00fav\u011br\u016f ovliv\u0148uj\u00ed nejist\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 prost\u0159ed\u00ed a zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby. Objem poskytnut\u00fdch hypote\u010dn\u00edch \u00fav\u011br\u016f podle\u00a0\u010cBA<\/span>\u00a0po lo\u0148sk\u00e9m boomu letos kles\u00e1, v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch\u00a0asociace<\/span> zaznamen\u00e1v\u00e1 i meziro\u010dn\u00ed pokles spot\u0159ebitelsk\u00fdch \u00fav\u011br\u016f. Nov\u00e9 korunov\u00e9 \u00fav\u011bry podnik\u016fm letos propadly o 40 procent, ale \u010d\u00e1st firem kv\u016fli vysok\u00fdm korunov\u00fdm \u00farokov\u00fdm sazb\u00e1m p\u0159e\u0161la na \u00fav\u011brov\u00e1n\u00ed v ciz\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch, zejm\u00e9na v eurech.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u010cesk\u00e1 bankovn\u00ed asociace zve\u0159ejnila novou makroekonomickou progn\u00f3zu. S anal\u00fdzou sezn\u00e1mili z\u00e1jemce hlavn\u00ed ekonom KB Jan Vejm\u011blek, hlavn\u00ed ekonom \u010cBA Jakub Seidler a hlavn\u00ed ekonom Banky […]<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":103,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6,4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-102","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analyza","category-banky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=102"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":114,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102\/revisions\/114"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/103"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=102"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=102"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.czechbankingnews.cz\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=102"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}